The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Guardians will do battle tonight on ESPN+. The Guardians are slight home favorites with Aaron Civale (1-1) on the mound. Let’s dive into the betting odds for Thursday night’s Red Sox-Guardians game to make our MLB predictions and pick the best bet. We’ll also go over whether it’s a good spot to take advantage of the early win bonus at DraftKings.
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Best MLB Red Sox-Guardians Betting Pick & Prediction: In Boston We Trust
Red Sox-Guardians Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Red Sox: +115 | Guardians: -145
Over 8.5: -110 | Over 8.5: -110
The Boston Red Sox are road underdogs tonight. They’ll start LHP Matt Dermody (0-0) in his first major-league start. Dermody has appeared in 30 major-league games and owns a 5.60 ERA. He owns a 4.50 ERA across nine appearances with the AAA Worcester Red Sox. He’ll line up against RHP Aaron Civale (1-1), whose 2.04 is impressive but likely unsustainable. Civale has pitched only 17.2 innings this year and owns a 3.98 ERA for his major-league career.
Bettors must seriously think about whether the disparity between Dermody and Civale justifies the books’ decision to favor the Cleveland Guardians because the Red Sox are a much better offensive team. Boston ranks seventh in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .331, and ninth in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .329. Cleveland ranks 30th in wOBA at .286 and 29th in xwOBA at .303.
Even if Dermody can’t stick out this game, Boston hasn’t chewed through its bullpen too much in this series. One of the club’s best relievers, RHP Josh Winckowski (2-1), is yet to see the mound in Cleveland. He ranks third in Boston’s rotation in xERA at 3.10. Five of Boston’s bullpen have combined to throw 112 pitches this series, 54 of which were thrown by LHP Chris Murphy (0-0); nine of Cleveland’s bullpen have combined to throw 140.
The Red Sox have too good of an offense for me to them up as a plus-money underdog, especially since Cleveland’s bullpen is gassed. Civale has been a serviceable starter this year, but if the Red Sox can force him out early, they’ll likely get to tee off against tired Cleveland relievers. Let’s take advantage of the early win bonus at DraftKings for this moneyline wager — you’ll get paid out if Boston leads by two runs at any point! If you haven’t signed up for DraftKings, you can get $200 in bonus bets after placing any $5 wager!
Best Red Sox-Guardians MLB Pick: Boston Moneyline +115 at DraftKings
