The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will do battle tonight in a pivotal NL East series. Both teams are at least five games behind the Atlanta Braves, and they even trail the Miami Marlins. Let’s get into the betting odds for Tuesday’s Phillies-Mets game to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet. We’re siding with the sharps by backing the Mets.
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Best MLB Phillies-Mets Bet & Prediction: Sharp Action Favoring This Side
Philadelphia Phillies-New York Mets Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Philadelphia Phillies: +110 | New York Mets: -130
Over 8.5: -115 | Under 8.5: -105
The Mets have both home-field and a pitching advantage, so it’s not surprising to see the books favoring them steadily tonight. Philadelphia will start LHP Ranger Suarez (0-1), whose 9.82 ERA across three starts and 11 innings pitched is a concern. New York will start RHP Kodai Senga (4-3), who owns a steady 3.94 ERA and a consistent 4.04 xERA. But despite Senga’s better ERA, Suarez owns a higher rolling game score from FiveThirtyEight, 52.4 to 48.8, because of the 3.65 ERA he recorded across 29 starts and 155.1 innings pitched last season.
But unfortunately for Suarez, the Mets are not a good get-right spot. New York ranks a solid 14th in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .320, but a much more impressive seventh in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .333. This discrepancy suggests they have gotten unlucky. In contrast, the Phillies rank 13th in wOBA at .321 but 25th in xwOBA at .310, which suggests they have gotten lucky. Park factors may for some of both gaps, as Citizens Bank Park ranks as the seventh-friendliest stadium for hitters while Citi Field ranks as the fourth-friendliest stadium for pitchers.
Both the Mets and Phillies got Memorial Day off, and this marks the first meeting between these teams this season. The Mets are starting to pick up the pace offensively and have scored six runs per game over their last six contests, although half of those came in Coors Field. The Phillies averaged a steady 4.3 runs per game during that stretch. With Suarez struggling so much early this season as he works back from an injury, it’s hard to justify backing Philadelphia.
Let’s trust the Mets to win this one outright. It appears that some sharp action has come in on New York early — Pregame reports that 86% of the handle is on New York but on only 41% of the tickets. Likewise, VSiN, which indexes bets placed at DraftKings, reports that 90% of the handle has come in on New York to cover the run line on only 53% of the tickets. Riding with the sharps is usually a profitable strategy, so let’s lock this one in at odds of -130 via FanDuel Sportsbook. Haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet? You can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000 by g up now!
Best Phillies-Mets MLB Bet: Mets -130 at FanDuel
