The New York Mets will visit the Atlanta Braves in a big NL East battle. The Braves currently lead the division, but the Mets are only 5.5 games behind them. Still, Atlanta will look to build its advantage in this series. Let’s dive into the betting odds for Tuesday night’s Mets-Braves game to make our MLB predictions and pick the best bet. We’re fading both offenses relative to an inflated total.
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Best MLB Mets-Braves Pick & Prediction: Tail the Sharps and Bet the Total
Mets-Braves Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Mets: +136| Braves: -162
Over 10: +100 | Under 10: -122
The Braves will have an edge on the mound tonight. New York will start RHP Carlos Carrasco (2-2), whose 5.75 ERA and 5.44 xERA don’t inspire confidence. He also ranks far below the division average in FiveThirtyEight’s rolling game score with a grade of 48.1. The Braves will start RHP Bryce Elder (3-0), whose 1.92 ERA is impressive but unsustainable compared to his 4.16 xERA. Still, Elder ranks as the eighth-best pitcher in a stacked division in FiveThirtyEight’s game score at 55.5.
As usual, the Braves will also have an edge at the plate. Atlanta ranks third in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .341, but leads the MLB in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .355. The Mets rank a dismal 22nd in wOBA at .314 but slot in a respectable eighth in xwOBA at .331. Although both offenses should benefit from positive regression over the course of the season, the Braves still have a sizeable leg up on their NL East rivals.
The betting odds and trends make handicapping tonight’s Mets-Braves game a bit more complicated. The total sits all the way up at 10 runs, which ties the highest number the Braves have received this season. The Braves are 0-1-1 to the under with a double-digit total this year, but when we zoom out to include games with a total of nine or more, they are 15-12-3 to the under. The Mets are 14-8-1 to the under with a total of nine or higher as well. Three of those over wins came in hitter-friendly stadiums like Great American Ballpark or Coors Field.
Although both offenses are underperforming relative to their ceiling, I think it’s sharp to fade them with such a high total available tonight. The Braves and Mets haven’t yet met this year but never received a total this high last season. Pregame reports that 83% of the cash has come in on the under and on only 38% of the tickets, so we’re tailing sharp money here. If you haven’t ed at FanDuel yet, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best Mets-Braves MLB Pick: Under 10 -122 at FanDuel
