If you want to be a profitable sports bettor, you need to understand the concept of true odds. Every +EV (positive expected value) bettor relies on true odds to determine whether a bet is worth making. Without this understanding, you’re just gambling blindly — and that’s exactly what sportsbooks want. So what are true odds and how do we apply it to our +EV betting?
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What Are True Odds in +EV Betting? Understanding Probability
True odds represent the actual probability of an event happening. Sportsbook odds, on the other hand, are influenced by market action, bookmaker adjustments and built-in vig (the sportsbook’s cut).
For example, if a fair coin flip has a 50% probability of landing heads, the true odds should be +100 (even money). But a sportsbook might list both heads and tails at -110, taking an extra 10 cents of juice on both sides. That’s how they make money.
In sports betting, the challenge is that we don’t know the exact probability of an event like an NBA team covering a spread or an NFL player hitting their rushing yard prop. But we can estimate it — and when a sportsbook misprices a bet compared to its true odds, that’s where +EV bets arise.
How Do You Identify True Odds?
Since sportsbooks set their own lines, different books may have slightly different numbers based on their risk exposure. The sharpest, most efficient sportsbooks — often referred to as market makers — tend to be the closest to the true odds. Other books simply copy or adjust based on market movement.
The key to +EV betting is comparing lines across multiple sportsbooks and spotting discrepancies. Portfolio EV does this work for you, scanning books to find the best value and highlighting bets where the available odds are better than the true probability suggests.
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- Claim Your Access – Email your screenshots to @oddsshopper.com, and we’ll grant you free access to Portfolio EV.
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Why True Odds Are Imperative to +EV Betting
Positive EV betting isn’t about picking winners; it’s about finding bets where the odds you’re getting offer a long-term edge over the books. Here’s how it works:
Convert Odds to Implied Probability – Odds tell you how likely a sportsbook thinks an event is to occur.
Example: A bet listed at -150 means the implied probability is 60% (150 / [150+100] = 0.60).
Compare to the True Probability – If your data or market research suggests that the actual probability is 65%, the bet is +EV because the book’s price is off.
Find Discrepancies Across Books – Let’s say one book lists an NBA player’s assists prop at over 7.5 (-120) but another book has it at over 7.5 (+100). If you know the true probability of the over hitting is 55%, the +100 bet is profitable while the -120 bet is not.
Portfolio EV identifies these market inefficiencies at scale, helping you capitalize on mispricings.
Putting It Into Practice: Using Portfolio EV to Beat the Market
Finding true odds manually is nearly impossible for casual bettors, which is why sharp bettors use data-driven tools like Portfolio EV. Instead of guessing, Portfolio EV scans sportsbook lines, compares them to real market probabilities, and flags bets with a +EV edge.
By betting into numbers that are consistently mispriced, you’re not just making smarter bets — you’re actively beating the books over time.
Final Thoughts: The Edge Is in the Numbers
Understanding and betting based on true odds is the foundation of +EV betting. Sportsbooks shade lines, take juice and make adjustments based on public perception — but your job is to cut through that noise and bet where the numbers give you an edge.
With Portfolio EV, you can systematically find bets where the odds are in your favor and build a long-term profitable strategy. If you’re serious about making money in sports betting, start thinking like a market analyst, not just a fan.
