In the world of NFL betting strategy — and how you can best “fade the public” in the NFL.
Sharp Money vs. Square Money: How to Fade the Public in the NFL
What is Sharp Money?
Sharp money refers to bets placed by professional or highly experienced bettors (or “sharps”). These bettors have deep knowledge of the game, advanced analytical skills and a disciplined approach to betting. Sharps rely heavily on data, research and sophisticated models to identify value in the betting lines. They are not swayed by public opinion or recent trends but instead focus on finding edges where the betting odds do not accurately reflect the true probabilities of the outcomes.
What is Square Money?
Square money refers to bets placed by casual or recreational bettors. These bettors typically do not have the same level of expertise or analytical focus as sharps. Squares are more likely to bet based on intuition, popular opinion or emotional factors such as loyalty to a favorite team. They often focus on recent performance, trends or media narratives, and are more prone to common psychological biases in betting.
Impact of Sharp Money & Square Money on Line Movement
Understanding the influence of sharp and square money is crucial for predicting line movement and finding value in NFL betting.
When sharp money enters the market, sportsbooks adjust the odds to for sharp action, as these bettors are often more accurate in their assessments. If you notice a sudden line shift that is not accompanied by any major news or public sentiment change, it’s often an indication that sharp money has influenced the market.
Square money, particularly in high-profile games, can also move lines, but often in a direction that benefits sharp bettors. For example, if squares heavily bet a popular team, the line may shift to favor its opponent, which creates value for sharps who take advantage of the inflated odds.
Leveraging Sharp Money & Square Money to Fade the Public
Monitor Line Movement
Pay attention to how lines move leading up to a game. Sharp money typically causes early line movement, while square money can drive last-minute shifts, especially on game day. Identifying these patterns can help you anticipate where the value lies.
Avoid Following the Crowd
Recognize that popular bets or heavily bet sides are often influenced by square money. Instead of following the crowd, focus on identifying opportunities where the market has overreacted to public sentiment. Sharps thrive by going against the grain and finding value in less obvious plays.
One way to avoid riding the popular wave is ing Tails By OddsShopper, where you’ll find expert picks and strategy from sharp bettors who make a living finding those edges in less obvious places. Staying in close touch with sharps will allow you to weed out the squares and keep your nose pointed in the right direction.
Check Out Public Betting Splits and Fade the Public
Public betting splits refer to the distribution of bets placed on each side of a game — typically represented as the percentage of bets and the percentage of money wagered on each team. For example, say the Ravens are playing the Chiefs in Kansas City. You might see a report showing that 70% of the bets are on the Chiefs, but only 40% of the money is on them, with the remaining 30% of bets and 60% of money on the Ravens.
In this case, since 70% of the bets are on the Chiefs but 60% is on the Ravens, we can deduce that the public is betting on Kansas City but sharps are targeting Baltimore. As such, we should probably be leaning a bit more towards the Ravens.
That said, finding this data is easier said than done and depends largely on sportsbooks. There are sites like Pregame offer betting splits to the public, but it only samples its own s. However, BetMGM and bet365 release their own betting splits data in press releases, and since these come straight from the horse’s mouth, these splits are very reliable.
Use Data-Driven Tools
Leveraging tools like Portfolio EV can enhance your ability to identify value by providing data-driven insights and expected value (EV) calculations. These tools can help you separate sharp line movements from those driven by square money, allowing you to make more informed betting decisions.
Develop a Long-Term Mindset
Like sharp bettors, focus on long-term gains rather than individual wins and losses. Success in NFL betting is not about winning every bet but about consistently finding value and making profitable decisions over time. This requires discipline, research and a willingness to on bets that don’t offer a clear edge. Again, data driven resources like Portfolio EV operate under a long-term model, so by using bets in these tools, you are using sharp betting strategy.
Conclusion
Understanding the difference between sharp and square money is a key component of successful Portfolio EV, you can better predict line movements and identify value opportunities.
