The NFL betting strategy at different points in the season to keep (or start!) winning.
NFL Betting Help: Make Adjustments to Keep (or Start!) Winning
NFL Betting Help: Understand the Season as Dynamic
Sports betting markets, much like financial markets, are constantly evolving. What works at the beginning of the NFL season may not be as effective by Week 10 or during the playoffs.
As teams play more games, bookmakers adjust their lines based on new information, public perception shifts and the market becoming more efficient. Successful bettors recognize these shifts and adapt their strategies accordingly.
Early-Season NFL Betting Strategy: Exploiting Uncertainty
At the start of the NFL season, there is a significant amount of uncertainty. Teams have made offseason moves, drafted new players and potentially changed coaching staffs. This is the period where the market is least efficient because the true strength of each team is still unknown. During these early weeks, it’s important to:
Focus on Under-the-Radar Teams: Early in the season, the betting public often overvalues popular teams and undervalues lesser-known or rebuilding teams.
By identifying undervalued teams, you can find advantageous lines. For example, if a team with strong offseason moves is still priced as an underdog, this might be an opportunity to capitalize before the market catches up.
Use Data from Preseason and Training Camps: Pay attention to preseason and reports from training camps. While preseason results don’t always correlate with regular-season success, they can provide insights into how new players are fitting into a system or how a coaching change might be impacting a team’s strategy.
Midseason NFL Betting Strategy: Adjusting to Trends and Injuries
As the season progresses, teams start to reveal their true identities. By midseason, bettors should shift their focus to understanding and analyzing team trends. This is continually adapting comes into play.
Analyze Emerging Trends: By midseason, trends such as home/away splits, over/under results and specific player performances start to solidify. For example, if a team consistently underperforms on the road, the market may not fully adjust for this until later in the season. Identifying these trends early allows you to stay ahead of the market.
for Injuries: Injuries are a significant factor in NFL betting, and by midseason injuries can have a major impact on a team’s performance. The key is to understand not just the direct impact of an injury to a star player but also how it affects the team’s overall strategy.
Look at the 2023 Browns as an example. They looked lost once Deshaun Watson went down for good, but then Joe Flacco came in and suited the Kevin Stefanski system well. The Browns ultimately made the playoffs after going 4-1 with Flacco as quarterback. If you caught on while the market overreacted to Watson’s injury, there was value to be had there.
Late-Season Strategy: Exploiting Market Inefficiencies and Playoff Implications
As the season draws to a close, the market becomes more efficient and the lines are sharper. However, this doesn’t mean opportunities disappear. Late-season betting requires a more nuanced approach.
Consider Playoff Implications: Late in the season, the playoff picture becomes clearer, and teams may adjust their strategies based on their position. For example, a team that has already clinched a playoff spot might rest key players, while a team fighting for a spot may play with heightened urgency. Understanding these dynamics can provide an edge, especially when the market doesn’t fully for these situational factors.
Look for Market Overreactions: Late in the season, the market can overreact to recent results, particularly in high-stakes games. A team coming off a big win might be overvalued, while a team coming off a loss might be undervalued, especially if the loss was due to a situational factor like bad weather or a key injury that is now resolved.
Use NFL Betting Tools to Stay Ahead of the Curve
To effectively adjust your NFL betting tools are invaluable in this regard.
OddsShopper compares odds across multiple sportsbooks, ensuring you’re always getting the best line available and also helping to spot market inefficiencies.
These tools find the bets that have positive expected value (+EV), meaning they project to be profitable in the long run.
Even if you have no great angles on NFL game lines or player props in any given week, you can use our Portfolio EV to find the bets that are most likely to make you money long-term.
Conclusion
The NFL season is a dynamic environment, and your NFL betting.
