The Players Championship is completed, but Florida golf continues on the PGA Tour, with the Valspar Championship next up on the schedule. It’s why we are here to continue our PGA Outright series by giving our Valspar Championship odds, picks, betting predictions and more.
This event may not have the buzz and prestige of last weeks “5th Major”, but there’s plenty of reasons to pay attention to this course, field, and betting board. Fortunately for us, Scottie Scheffler decided to give everyone else a chance to grab a win and with that brings a completely different look to the top of the board. Let’s dive into the course, skillset, and guys we are eyeing at this week’s Valspar.
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PGA Valspar Championship Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
PGA Valspar Championship Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | +650 |
| Sam Burns | +1200 |
| Justin Thomas | +1400 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1800 |
| Brian Harman | +2200 |
| Cameron Young | +2500 |
| Tony Finau | +2800 |
| Sungjae Im | +2800 |
| Min Woo Lee | +3000 |
| Nick Taylor | +3500 |
This Par 71 layout is atypical in a few ways with five Par 3’s testing players irons early and often. They still get four Par 5’s to attack so that’s another important data point to consider. This is a full field so there’s a ton of names to choose from. I’ll be focusing on ball strikers, particularly ones who can control their irons and don’t mind having 150-200+ yard approaches on a lot of these holes. Driving distance doesn’t play a major factor on this course. I don’t see that changing this year.
In of the field, we still have some big names highlighted by Xander Schauffele coming off a near win at The Players. From there we have a handful of top end talent, but it doesn’t resemble what we were dealing with last week. That distributes the win equity further down the board and absolutely allows you to take some shots on potential first-time winners or relatively unknown tour players. Here’s a few guys who made my betting card as we look to hit an outright at the Valspar Championship
PGA Outright Pick #1: Tony Finau
My guy Tony Finau was my pick to win last week at Sawgrass, and although he found the weekend he never really threatened. I don’t read much into that other than winning golf tournaments is hard and in elite fields you have to bring your A+ game to have a chance.
Digging into the data it’s a pretty easy evaluation as Finau lost 3 strokes off the tee; which is just not going to get it done. The rest of the game was fine, including his putting on Bermuda which is plaguing him at times. If he continues he absolutely can get in the hunt led by his irons — a positive in five straight events.
Numbers wise I was pretty happy to find 28-1 in this field considering it’s not nearly as competitive at the top. Of course, his Players Outright was higher, but I honestly expected him to drop even lower given the field and the situation. Peaking at his previous history here we find a mixed bag of MC’s and a 5th place finish back in 2017. Finau lost strokes putting in all four appearances so step one is flipping that and getting in position.
Given the wide open nature of this event, I’m very comfortable holding on with Finau and seeing what another week of betting him gives us.
PGA Valspar Championship Pick: Tony Finau 28-1 FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #2: Christian Bezeduinhout
I’ll go down with this ship if Christian Bezuidenhout doesn’t eventually win on the PGA Tour, but its happening. I truly believe he is close, and this is another week where he belongs on your betting card. Sitting 45-1 in a field that doesn’t have the Scheffler star power, while coming off a 13th place finish last week at Sawgrass. More impressive than the finish was the 7 strokes gained on the irons and that is exactly what we need him to replicate here.
The big question every week with Bez is can he survive off the tee and not put himself in too much trouble. He has lost strokes in six of his last seven OTT and that does put a lot of pressure on the rest of his game. Coming to a layout that deemphasizes driving distance is a welcomed sight and we saw some of that last week at a similar track. I’ll call for another quality finish and I am happy to continue to buy in the 45-1 range knowing that any outright hit makes this entire season more than worth it.
PGA Valspar Championship Pick: Christian Bezuidenhout 45-1 FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #3: Doug Ghim 45-1
Feels like the entire world has come together around Doug Ghim this week so lets cash a ticket as a community. Its easy to see why we all have interest as Ghim has five straight Top 20’s and is gaining strokes consistently across the board. Last time out at The Players he finished 16th and once again was positive in all four strokes gained categories.
Price wise Ghim has certainly felt the result of the community backing him with books dropping this number into the 40-1 range at certain shops. There are still a few 45-1’s out there and that’s a number im okay having on the card. If Ghim continues to play this well its just a matter of time before he’s truly in the hunt on Sunday and I see no reason it can’t be this week at Valspar.
PGA Valspar Championship Pick: Doug Ghim 45-1 FanDuel
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