The Florida swing continues as the biggest names in golf convene at Palm Valley for the “Fifth” Major. Not a soul in this massive field will take Sawgrass lightly as most will tell you winning this event means more than anything – especially as everyone looks to take down Scottie Scheffler. We only need a guy to do it in the first round to cash a ticket, something we’ve been able to do three times this year in the OddsShopper discord.
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Nothing is consistent here when it comes to a winning formula. We’ve seen bombers survive the doglegs and layups off the tee, we’ve seen short game technicians win – each doing it a different way. It’s Florida, so expect some wind and possible rain – on top of the many water hazards looming on the course.
Putting is an incredible metric for determining a First Round Leader (FRL). It’s a metric that can distance a golfer from the field, even if it’s for one day. Tee times are vital for more success in choosing the PLAYERS Championship FRL picks, as golfers in the earlier groupings seem to get the better of the course – weather notwithstanding. The last thing to keep in mind is overall value compared to FRL pricing. Most, if not all, odds in the first round are based on overall price to win – not necessarily first round history.
If you’re looking to get some skin in the game on the PGA this week, check out a few of our every expert pick!
THE PLAYERS Championship First-Round Leader Picks
Keys to THE PLAYERS Championship First-Round Leader Picks In 2024
This is one of the toughest golf events on the planet. Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion and comes in fresh off a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. There are a couple of key factors to consider when picking a FRL – and in this case, it’s similar to picking an overall winner. Course history is a little tricky here, we’ve seen consistent golfers at Sawgrass still come up short, and the opposite – shaky course history translating into success.
Bottom line is nobody is beating this field including Scheffler, even for one day, if they aren’t already coming in playing sharp. Yes, we want ball strikers but we also want heat behind the player. Putting and scoring on Par 5’s will come into play but the main focus is gaining strokes off approach shots. As much as course history can play in other events, finding the right mix of a hot golfer with decent to strong history at Sawgrass meets the middle of our Venn diagram.
Two things that have been discussed at TPC Sawgrass that I am against, and will use accordingly to choose a FRL. The first is “driving distance doesn’t matter” -False. This event was moved to March and if anyone plays golf in March on the east coast, you know the ball simply doesn’t carry as much. While this 144 man field faces the turns of a Pete Dye course, distance does matter.
The other is going against one of our normal key metrics, earlier tee times. The reality at Sawgrass is if you know the course and can beat the shorter Par 5’s, it won’t matter nearly as much when you tee off.
THE PLAYERS Championship First-Round Leader Bets
THE PLAYERS Championship First Round Leader Picks: Shane Lowry +5000 DraftKings
This is no easy feat. Shane Lowry is in the back end of Thursday’s tee times, looking to buck a trend of five straight FRL coming in the earlier groupings. However, he’s the most fit to knock off Scheffler and actually win this event – it should start on day one thanks to one key metric in Lowry’s game.
He’s gaining strokes off the approach. Lowry remains one of the tightest sharp shooters in gaining strokes with his approach shots, something that will be vital to chasing any earlier lead. The wind looks to be calm but the course won’t be, and Lowry’s ability to scramble and save par will be huge. He’s good enough to put together a bunch of consecutive scoring holes which can easily narrow and close any gap.
With a T13 in 2022 and a T8 in 2021, it’s safe to say Lowry not only likes this course, but also dominates. There’s pressure on everyone with a field this deep, but Lowry has the skill set to avoid falling into any major rut. Even a bogey or two can easily be erased with a birdie streak. Take Lowry to lead after one.
Best THE PLAYERS Championship First-Round Leader Bet: Will Zalatoris +3300 DraftKings
THE PLAYERS Championship First Round Leader Picks: Brian Harman +6600 BetMGM
The last time Brian Harman missed a cut was the Memorial, in 2023. He’s played in 17 events since then, picking up a win at the US Open, a T2 at the Travelers, and a bunch more T10s. He’s crushing the ball and striking it well, but the biggest sign came last week at the API where he finished T12. Harman was at +1.73 SG:APP which again, translates incredibly well over to this week. He’s another later tee time but has everything working for him and a putter that won’t sabotage a round, at least not the first one.
