After a brief one week break from traditional tour golf, the PGA is back in action with the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. This takes it back to Texas and more specifically TPC Craig Ranch, which has hosted this event in previous years. From a betting perspective, there are not many of the heavy hitters that usually are at the top of the board, which provides a lot of different options when making our PGA best bets for the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
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PGA CJ Cup Byron Nelson Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions
PGA CJ Cup Byron Nelson Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | +1600 |
| Si Woo Kim | +1600 |
| Jason Day | +2000 |
| Will Zalatoris | +2200 |
| Adam Scott | +2200 |
| Byeong Hun An | +2500 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +2500 |
| Alex Noren | +2500 |
| Min Woo Lee | +2500 |
| Tom Kim | +2800 |
Before we get into the players to target in the outright market, we should break down what they will face when heading to this layout. The short version is, be ready to go low since Craig Ranch is notorious for allowing a ton of birdies, especially if it’s calm conditions. The big thing with this layout is taking advantage of all the scoring holes, but the course doesn’t really stand out in any major way.
Golfers can take advantage off the tee if they have firepower, so expect plenty of long hitters to do just that. With it being a birdie fest, they need to make a fair share of putts, so this at times comes down to who can sink the most 10- to 15-foot birdie looks because each player should have plenty.
Instead of a +400 Scottie Scheffler, the board is wide open, led off by Jordan Spieth at 16-1. From there, a lot of guys could easily find themselves in position come Sunday. For the last month or so on tour, it has been about who can beat Scheffler (apparently no one), but this tournament presents a new challenge. Here’s a few names that I put on my betting card for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson this week.
PGA Outright Pick #1: Alex Noren
Breaking down Noren is an interesting task, as he was a prolific player in Europe who made the jump to the U.S., and despite quality play, he has never been able to win on tour. He has numerous top 5’s and heads into this event playing quality golf. Noren hasn’t missed a cut on tour since September of 2023 and comes in with five straight top-25 showings. The consistency is great, but to hit an outright, he needs a ceiling performance, which is the missing piece.
There is not much top-end win equity in this field, so numbers aren’t going to be overly appealing. We make up for that by not having to deal with Scheffler, so it’s a give and take when looking at the board. The case for Noren is pretty simple when you look at how well he is playing and a course that should fit his game. If he is ever to win on tour, it will be a birdie-fest type of event, so he checks a ton of boxes this week.
PGA CJ Cup Byron Nelson Pick: Alex Noren (25-1, FanDuel)
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PGA Outright Pick #2: Seamus Power
Don’t look now, but Seamus Power has gotten himself back in form, which means it’s time to start endlessly backing him in the outright market. This is a golfer on whom I am always overweight in DFS, and after a rough beginning to 2024, Power is starting to show something. Coming in off a successful 12th at Heritage gives him some momentum, and the strokes gained are very encouraging.
Power already has a few wins on the resume, so if he can somehow get in contention, it wouldn’t be uncharted territory for him. The irons are the catalyst, with strokes gained on approach in five straight events, while the course history also checks out in his handful of starts here.
More important than the result is the course fit, which shouldn’t require strong off-tee play and instead can be an iron and putting competition. That style of golf fits exactly where Power should feel most comfortable, so it makes sense he’s finished inside the top 20 three straight years at this venue.
Given the combination of the game getting into shape and the skills required to be successful here, I want Power on the betting card this week.
PGA CJ Cup Byron Nelson Pick: Seamus Power (55-1, FanDuel)
PGA Outright Pick #3: Doug Ghim
There’s no doubt the talent is there, but Ghim is a roller coaster with stretches of world-class play surrounded by stretches where you wonder how he will last on tour. After a sizzling February and March where he missed no cuts and had five straight top-20 finishes, he has cooled off with two missed cuts in his last three starts. I’m not pressing the panic button just yet, as Ghim’s off-tee game is still secure; he just needs that putter to cooperate.
When backing a guy like this, it’s always a delicate balance of wanting form to lean on but not too much where it impacts the number too greatly on the board. Ghim is 70-1 because of his average-at-best recent form, and for a volatile player like this, that is better than the number getting cut in half based off some recent successes. He obviously knows Texas golfing conditions and has shown already he can flip a switch at any time. If Ghim’s putter can roll enough birdies in this week, there is no reason he can’t get in the mix, and I love this number on the outright board.
PGA CJ Cup Byron Nelson Pick: Doug Ghim (70-1, FanDuel)
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