The tour hits Torrey Pines for a split course event, starting a day earlier this week to make way for the NFL Championship games. It’s why we are here to discuss our Farmers Insurance Open long shot bets. Heck, hopefully as we go it’ll help you make some Farmers Insurance Open picks.
The field is deep and there are different approaches for the North and South courses, each bringing their own challenges. Finding long shot value centers around which golfer can keep pace with the field, long enough to strike but not with too deep of a deficit. Par is valuable here, unlike last week’s birdie fest. Let’s look at the best long shot play for this week’s Farmers Insurance Open.
2024 The Farmers Insurance Open Long Shot Bets
While the biggest names like Scottie and Rory may not be in attendance, there’s still some top heavy names watering down odds. That’s especially great when locating a golfer north of 100:1 to win outright. This week the focus is on the flat stick, most notably comfort on poa greens. The difficulty in mastering Torrey Pines comes with navigating each of the two courses. The green type remains constant while getting there may change throughout this event.
We hone in on one of the few local golfers comfortable on poa grass, and sitting at +13000 as an outright winner. Most golfers ahead of Justin Suh will struggle on one of the two courses, making it difficult to gain and sustain a lead – certainly coming from behind. The only way to do that is by scoring on the green. Suh is local and knows these bumpy surfaces. It’s simply the difference of knowing these greens on an eight foot putt versus bogeying out and losing ground.
Suh won’t blast out of the gate with a five stroke lead but he won’t be out of it either. He’s struggled out of the gate, missing both cuts in January – The Sony then the AMEX. But even at the Sony, he gained strokes on the green while struggling with irons and approach. This is a long course with demanding approach shots north of 200 yards, most golfers will struggle getting to the green. Getting in from 8-15 feet is the name of the game. We ride with Suh at a ridiculous 130-1 ticket.
Best Farmers Insurance Open Long Shot Bets Outright Winner: Justin Suh (+13000, DraftKings)
Honorable Mention: Chesson Hadley (150-1 BetMGM)
Just below Suh is Chesson Hadley, another golfer comfortable on the putting surface. He gained strokes on the green at the Sony but was a disaster at the AMEX, despite making cuts at both events. He’s another guy who can hang around long enough to turn 10 to 12 footers into birdies, suddenly appearing on the leader board late Friday (Day 3). At 150-1 we bet that Hadley doesn’t implode on approach shots, but even if he struggles getting to the green, the play is he won’t disappear on it.
