Welcome to Bay Hill where the TOUR continues it’s Florida swing, attracting some of the biggest names in the world of golf. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has a major feel to it as the first elevated event in the Florida swing, and Bay Hill will test every swing of even the best in this field. We have a typical Florida course with typical Florida issues – wind and water being the two key areas, and a chance to attack some value still on the First Round Leader (FRL) board. Nonetheless, let’s get on to our The Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader picks, bets and more.
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Course history at Bay Hill is certainly worth something but not everything for a FRL. We can gain an edge if someone’s outright number is the same or similar to their FRL odds, especially if they dont have the best course history. This is a large field full of big names with both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy each getting odds shorter than 10:1. Much like a major, getting out and leading the first round will take a special day, especially outlasting this deep of a field.
Putting is always important to weight, especially for any FRL. It’s a metric that can distance a golfer from the field, even if it’s for one day. Tee times are vital for more success in choosing the Arnold Palmer Invitational FRL picks, as golfers in the earlier groupings seem to get the better of the course – weather notwithstanding. The last thing to keep in mind is overall value compared to FRL pricing. Most, if not all, odds in the first round are based on overall price to win – not necessarily first round history.
If you’re looking to get some skin in the game on the PGA this week, check out a few of our every expert pick!
The Arnold Palmer Invitational First-Round Leader Picks
Keys to Arnold Palmer Invitational First-Round Leader Picks In 2024
Not much changes from last week when it comes to avoiding bogeys and dealing with hazards. Bay Hill is full of water that can derail any hole. The wind is a major factor, especially if it’s coupled with rain. This is far from an easy course, and unlike last week, golfers are heavily penalized for landing in the Bay Hill rough. Staying alive and avoiding bogeys are going to be as good as birdies, especially in the opening round.
The greens are Bermuda at Bay Hill as those familiar with this on the Florida tour tend to perform better. We want to identify someone who can at least putt on these greens, and is starting on the earlier side of the day. Getting out earlier in Florida – weather pending – can be a major advantage before the course takes a beating from any of the elements.
There’s a massive correlation between strong previous finishes and winning this event, but one guy with a rather shaky course history stands out for FRL.
Arnold Palmer Invitational First-Round Leader Bets
Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Picks: Will Zalatoris +3300 DraftKings
Beating Bay Hill and the top names in the field is a gigantic task. Putting that together over four days requires an enormous amount of mental strength, especially for anyone who has struggled with four days of consistent golf at Bay Hill. It’s not that we aren’t weighting course history with Will Zalatoris, rather knowing when to bail before he implodes. To be fair, Zalatoris has avoided a MC in each of the last three years – with a T10 in 2021. I think he’s a decent candidate to win but his value lies in attacking day one.
The biggest concern for Zalatoris was his back but he seems to be past any major injury concerns. He showed up at the Genesis finishing with a T2, and a T13 at the Farmer’s. We’ve seen typical performances from a healthy Zalatoris, and he’s put together a somewhat successful formula in prior years at Bay Hill.
As mentioned, these are difficult scoring conditions for anyone out there. Zalatoris has thrived in similar conditions and is striking the ball at an elite level. Dating back to last year’s API, Zalatoris lost strokes on the green in five straight events. He’s since corrected that, gaining in each of his last three tournaments – making each cut. He’s currently sitting 35:1 to win this thing, but Zalatoris is a far better bet to control the first round.
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational First-Round Leader Bet: Will Zalatoris +3300 DraftKings
Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Picks: Keegan Bradley +5000 BetMGM
Only nine players in this field have multiple T-10 finishes over the past five years. One of them is Keegan Bradley. In fact, he’s crushing this course with a T-10, T-11, and T-10 over his last three years at Bay Hill. At 50-1, Bradley is at the mercy of a large field with far bigger names, especially with his 60-1 outright number. But Bradley knows this course better than most, and is gaining strokes in every major category here over the past three years.
We sneak in a longer shot play here as Bradley already has a T-2 and T-11 this year. That and his history at Bay Hill are strong reasons to take a shot at first round leader.
