It’s officially that time of the year where horse racing takes center stage as the Run for The Roses begins. The Kentucky Derby is always a drama-filled race with 20 horses looking to take the first step at the elusive Triple Crown. Breaking down this mammoth field is no small task, but the question is simple: Who is going to win this race, and what should we bet? Luckily, we are here to find the answers, so let’s dive into the Kentucky Derby field and what to know before placing some bets.
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Best 2024 Kentucky Derby Bets & Predictions
2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders
No. 17 Fierceness: Win Odds 5-2
We have to get started at the top of the odds board with two horses. First is the No. 17 horse in Fierceness, who by all indications is going to be the favorite at post time. The 110 speed figure we saw in the Florida Derby shows his ceiling is there, and if every horse ran their A+ race, Fierceness would win. Of course, that won’t happen, but this is the rightful favorite and checks most of the boxes we want. If you are looking for the highest chance of cashing a ticket, then betting on Fierceness is the play.
No. 2 Sierra Leone: Win Odds 3-1
The second choice has to be Sierra Leone, who should be right there atop the odds board as well. He is more of a deep closer who will need to avoid traffic or risk getting blocked, but the talent is there. Sierra Leone won the Blue Grass Stakes in early April, and the Chad Brown-trained horse looks ready to roll. I worry a little about a closer being able to circle a field this big, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for looking here.
2024 Kentucky Derby Longshots
I could fill up the entire article with longshots since there are 20 horses, most of which do not figure to contend. That means the board is going to light up with 30-1, 50-1, maybe even 99-1 horses at the back end of the field. For most, it’ll be a triumph just to hit the board, but a few could make some noise. Here are a few names to keep an eye on as Kentucky Derby longshots that could contend.
| Post No. | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 |
| 10 | T O | 30-1 |
| 11 | Forever Young | 10-1 |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 |
| 21 | Epic Ride | 30-1 |
No. 18 Stronghold: Win Odds 30-1
This is the longshot I have fallen in love with, and he is absolutely a steal at these odds. The son of Ghostzapper is getting better with each start and comes in having won the Santa Anita Derby out in California. It will take another leap in the speed figures to win here, but in six career races, Stronghold has had a better and better number in each one. He has three wins and three second places, so this horse seems to contend no matter what.
In of positioning, I expect Stronghold to be lurking right off the pace and in the middle of the pack. He is not a deep closer like Sierra Leone, but he is also not a speedball who will immediately go to the front. With the right trip and a little luck, this could be the Cinderella story and a big-time payday.
No. 8 Just A Touch: Win Odds 13-1
The prices will fluctuate as we get closer to post time, but regardless, this should be a nice number for a horse who could figure in early. Most of the favorites in this race are either closers or prefer to stalk the pace rather than setting it. It’s always a little mystery to know who will go to the front, but with a clean break, it could be Just a Touch. He, along with a few other horses, could set the pace.
It’s a gigantic if, but IF a horse like this is able to get loose on the front and set reasonable fractions, that is a recipe for success. The wire-to-wire running style has its advantages and disadvantages, but in a field this big, it’s nice to know he doesn’t have to navigate traffic. We will see how Florent Geroux chooses to position him, but this is a horse to keep in mind when building out exotic tickets.
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2024 Kentucky Derby Best Bets
One of the beautiful things about horse racing is there are so many different types of bets to consider. The simplest is betting to win. On the other end of the spectrum is something like a trifecta, which gets the first-, second- and third-place finishes correct in order. Naturally, something like that could pay out astronomically high odds even for a small amount wagered.
If you want to just have a rooting interest, betting Fierceness to win is going to do that. It’s not going to make you a lot of money, but that’s the horse to beat. However, let’s approach it slightly differently with the following wagers.
Win/Place/Show: No. 18 Stronghold
Betting Stronghold across the board — meaning to win, to place (first or second) or to show (first, second or third) — has good odds, and the payout, even on these bets without other horses involved, will be a solid one. We will find out if he has the ceiling performance to contend.
Exacta Box: Nos. 17,18, 8
Exacta is trying to pick the first- and second-place finishers in order, which is a nice balance of upside but also a realistic chance to cash a ticket. Boxing them means all combinations so in this case any order of Nos. 8, 17 or 18 gives us a win. You easily could slide in other horses for this bet, but I like the strategy of taking either Fierceness or Sierra Leone paired with a few longshots. In this case, Stronghold and Just a Touch are both viable candidates, and if one of them wins, it’s going to be a big exacta payout.
