The Tulane Green Wave will visit the Memphis Tigers on Friday night in an important AAC contest — both teams are 4-1 overall and 1-0 in conference play. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market.
Tulane-Memphis Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 7
Tulane-Memphis Betting Odds
Odds via Bet365
Tulane: -210 | Memphis: +175
Tulane -5: -110 | Memphis +5: -110
Over 55: -110 | Under 55: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Friday, Oct. 13 at 7 p.m. ET
Tulane-Memphis Pick & Prediction
Friday brings us a three-game college football card that, aside from this game, looks pretty terrible. The Fresno State Bulldogs are a 5.5-point road favorite over the Utah State Aggies, and the Colorado Buffaloes are a 12.5-point home favorite over the Stanford Cardinal. If you want to watch a competitive football game on Friday, this AAC battle between the Tulane Green Wave and Memphis Tigers is your best bet. Tulane is a 5-point road favorite, but I think the market is still overestimating them after their shockingly good season in 2022. Tulane is just 2-3 ATS this year. Memphis is even worse at 1-3-1, but their lone failure to cover as a dog came by the hook.
When these teams met last season, Tulane scored a 10-point home win. Memphis staged a late-game comeback but fell short of completing it, and the Green Wave had held them scoreless through the first half. I don’t expect a similar outcome this season: the Tigers are averaging the 42nd-most yards per play (5.8) and, while they rank 104th in yards allowed per play (6.2), the gap between these teams isn’t as wide as it was last year. Tulane’s run-heavy scheme will make covering difficult, as the Green Wave have much less efficient options in the backfield this year after losing Tyjae Spears to the NFL draft.
Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan has led a solid ing offense this year. Henigan ranks 43rd in yards per attempt (7.9) and 40th in ing efficiency (147.7). Those are worse numbers than Tulane’s starter, Michael Pratt, who is unranked because of a multi-game absence but has recorded 11 yards per attempt and a ing efficiency grade of 207.4. However, Pratt’s career home-away splits are notable: he averages just 7.1 yards per attempt and owns a ing efficiency grade of just 131.9 when playing outside of New Orleans.
With Tulane on the road for this one, Pratt’s road struggles should continue. The last time he started in Memphis, he completed only 44.1% of his es for 4.3 yards per attempt and a ing efficiency grade of 78.4. He has yet to play a road game this season. Even in his impressive 2022 campaign, Pratt made just four road starts, and those included three of his worst five performances. Tulane may be 6-0 ATS on the road since 2022, but without Spears, Pratt won’t have NFL-level talent present in the backfield to bail him out.
Check out the rest of our college football picks for Week 7! ➚➚
Since the early week column went live, Memphis has moved from a 3.5-point dog to a full 5-point dog. Pregame reports that Memphis is the public team: they’ve attracted 70% of the tickets but only 56% of the cash. Parker Fleming’s model even gives Tulane a 15-point advantage for this one. However, Tulane isn’t universally sharp — the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) favors the Green Wave by only a 2.3-point margin. Despite the unfavorable line movement, I’m sticking to my guns here and recommend backing the Tigers at anything over the key number of 3.5.
Tulane-Memphis Week 7 Pick: Memphis +5 -110 at Bet365
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