Friday’s college football slate isn’t great. We’ll get one game, between the SMU Mustangs and the Temple Owls, for which SMU is a 23.5-point road favorite. Yikes. Let’s dig into today’s SMU-Temple odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 8 bet! As always, make sure to check out OddsShopper’s bet shopping pages to ensure you get the best deal on the market.
SMU-Temple Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 8
SMU-Temple Betting Odds
Odds via bet365
SMU: -2000 | Temple: +1125
SMU -23.5: -110 | Temple +23.5: -110
Over 55: -110 | Under 55: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Friday, Oct. 20 at 7 p.m. ET
SMU-Temple Pick & Prediction
The Southern Methodist Mustangs will visit the Temple Owls in what everyone projects as a blowout. SMU is 2-0 in conference play; Temple is 0-3. Although SMU must play this one on the road, they won their lone conference road game in dominant fashion, beating East Carolina by 21 points. SMU’s only other road games have come against Power 5 opponents. They lost to No. 6 Oklahoma by 15 and TCU by 17. Losing by double digits is never fun, but those margins could’ve been a lot bigger. Meanwhile, Temple has suffered home losses to UTSA and Miami.
With Tanner Mordecai now in Wisconsin, SMU has turned to a slightly worse option at quarterback, but the defense has stepped up where the offense has faltered. Preston Stone has taken the reins. He ranks only 57th in ing efficiency, and SMU’s offense ranks an unspectacular 63rd in yards per play (5.4). The Mustangs averaged 5.9 last year. However, the offense still ranks an encouraging 32nd in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). The defense, which allowed 6.1 yards per play last season, ranks 18th (4.6) in the metric this season. The unit ranks only 64th in the FEI, but the yardage returns are encouraging.
SMU isn’t perfect, but it’s far better than Temple. The Owls rank 111th in yards per play (4.6) and 126th in yards allowed per play (6.7). As a team, they rank 124th in the FEI with the fifth-worst defense. First halves have proven especially disastrous for Temple. The Owls rank 114th in points per first half (9.2) and 129th in points allowed per first half (21.8), good for an average margin of 12.6. Quarterback E.J. Warner ranks 88th in ing efficiency (121.3), which could be worse, but the Owls have become entirely reliant upon their ing game to compensate for a rushing game that ranks 116th in yards per attempt (3).
I’m targeting the first-half spread for this one. SMU ranks 50th in points per first half (15) but clocks in at an impressive 14th in points allowed per first half (8.2), good for an average margin of 6.8. With the first-half spread set to as low as 11.5, that’s not quite what we’re looking for, but narrowing down our dataset can help. SMU is projected to win tonight, and in the Mustangs’ four wins, the first-half margin was 31, 56, 14 and four, good for an average of 26.3 and a median of 22.5. Temple is bad, and SMU should capitalize early — but I’m still limiting my action on this wager to a half unit.
Check out the rest of our college football picks and predictions for Week 8!
I recommended buying SMU as a 10.5-point first-half favorite in the early week column, and since then, the margin has ballooned. DraftKings, which had been selling SMU for as much as +102 to cover the 10.5, has since gassed the first-half spread up to 13.5. You can still buy SMU to cover an 11.5-point first-half spread, which isn’t that meaningfully different from the 10.5, at odds of -128 via FanDuel. With most other books listing the first-half spread at 13.5, take advantage of that slightly off-market number when wagering on tonight’s action.
SMU-Temple Week 8 Pick: SMU First Half -10.5 -128 at FanDuel
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