The Red River Showdown has arrived. This year’s matchup is especially meaningful due to looming conference realignment — and the fact that both Texas and Oklahoma are entering it with unblemished records. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 6 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Oklahoma-Texas odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 6 bet! Also, don’t forget to use your Oklahoma-Texas odds boost at DraftKings Sportsbook!
Oklahoma-Texas Pick, Prediction & DraftKings Boost | College Football Week 6
Oklahoma-Texas DraftKings Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Oklahoma: +180 | Texas: -218
Oklahoma +5.5: -110 | Texas -5.5: -110
Over 60.5: -110 | Under 60.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Oct. 7 at 12 p.m. ET
Oklahoma-Texas Pick & Prediction
The 119th meeting between the No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners and No. 3 Texas Longhorns will take place this Saturday. Oklahoma is looking for revenge after last year’s 49-point shellacking ended their four-game winning streak. This is the first season since 2019 that both of these teams will play the Red River Showdown as top-15 teams in the AP Poll. It’s also the last that they’ll play as of the Big 12. Despite Texas’ big win over Alabama earlier this season, I’m putting my action on Oklahoma this week.
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The Sooners outrank the Longhorns in several key offensive metrics. For one, they’re gaining more yards per play — Oklahoma ranks 13th (6.8), slightly ahead of 16th-ranked Texas (6.7). Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel ranks 14th in yards per attempt (10.1) and 14th in ing efficiency (189.4), beating out Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, who ranks 26th (9.2) and 23rd (165.7). Although the Longhorns have played a more challenging schedule, the Sooners are too talented to be a 5.5-point dog.
But while Oklahoma boasts the better offense, Texas boasts the better defense. The two teams are tied for 16th in yards allowed per play (4.5) despite Texas playing a harder schedule. The Texas defense enters Week 5 ranked fourth in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), slightly ahead of 14th-ranked Oklahoma. However, Texas’ defense has performed well primarily because of success against the run — the Longhorns rank 18th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.1) but 23rd in yards allowed per attempt (6.3), which slightly trails the 16th-ranked Sooners (6).
The market is treating a pair of evenly matched teams as far too disparate this weekend. Although the Sooners may not be a better overall team than the Longhorns, they are far better than the odds suggest, and their analytics-based offense should have the edge on early downs. I’m buying Oklahoma to keep this game within a touchdown — and to win it outright. This isn’t last year’s corpse of an Oklahoma team, and I expect them to leave the Cotton Bowl with their heads held high.
Check out the rest of our college football picks for Week 6! ➚➚
We took advantage of Oklahoma +6.5 in the early week column, but that number has since disappeared. The new line is Oklahoma +5.5, which, while not far off, still puts us below an additional key number. However, it’s worth noting that the betting models I trust have very different assessments of this game. The FEI has Oklahoma as a one-point favorite with a win probability of 52.9%. Parker Fleming’s model has Texas as a 7.2-point favorite with a win probability of 68.6%. If you didn’t get the 6.5 early in the week, I recommend using your DraftKings boost to buy the 6.5 now at close-to-even odds.
Oklahoma-Texas Week 6 Pick: Oklahoma +6.5 -127 (+118 Boosted) at DraftKings
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