The Navy Midshipmen will do battle with the Memphis Tigers on the road come Thursday night, and the books expect a big win for the home favorites. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 3 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Navy-Memphis odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 3 bet!
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Navy-Memphis Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 3
Navy-Memphis Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Navy: +460 | Memphis: -650
Navy +14.5: -105 | Memphis -14.5: -115
Over 47.5: -105 | Under 47.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Navy-Memphis Pick & Prediction
The Navy Midshipmen will visit the Memphis Tigers on Thursday night. They’ll have to compete with the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles for viewership, but this pseudo-Thursday Night Football contest is an interesting one from a betting perspective. We’ve got a service academy, which are known for slow-paced, run-heavy offenses, lining up against a fast-paced Memphis team that ranked 36th in seconds per play last year (24.1) and 19th a year before that (23). But despite Memphis’ pace, the offense hasn’t been especially efficient — Memphis ranked 58th in yards per play last year (5.5) and 52nd a year before that (5.8).
This game would normally set up well for a wager on the under, but because the scheduling gods have planned this for a Thursday, we’re taking a different approach. Navy and Memphis squared off on a Thursday back in 2021 and combined for 52 points. Memphis, led by quarterback Seth Henigan, won by 17 at home. Henigan remains the starting quarterback, and he’ll look to preserve his undefeated streak against Navy on Thursday. He led the Tigers to a 24-point road victory over the Midshipmen just last season
The Memphis offense, which relies on Henigan, sets up well against Navy’s defense. The Midshipmen thrive on shutting down rushing lanes, as they ranked eighth in yards allowed per rush attempt last year (3.3), but they struggle against the , as they ranked 128th in yards allowed per attempt (8.9). Those struggles were on display against Notre Dame earlier this season, as Sam Hartman exploited the Navy secondary and recorded 10.1 yards per attempt. FCS Wagner couldn’t move the ball against them through the air last week, but that’s to be expected for a lower-division program.
Although Memphis hasn’t done much in the recent past, Henigan, their quarterback, has looked impressive. He recorded a ing efficiency grade of 143.9 last year, which ranked a solid 41st, a year after recording a 147.7, which ranked 48th. Importantly, Henigan has also averaged more than eight yards per attempt in both of those seasons, which is crucial against a slow-paced Navy offense that will try to win by limiting Memphis’ possessions. That strategy didn’t work against Hartman and Notre Dame, and it’s unlikely to work against Henigan and Memphis.
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Memphis has been trading at 14.5 or 14 all week, but the number has stuck at FanDuel for most of the last two days. While I think Memphis will win Thursday’s Navy-Memphis game by a healthy margin, I can’t justify pulling the trigger on a number that would be so easy for the slow-paced Midshipmen to backdoor. Instead, I recommend that you construct a same-game teaser. You can buy Memphis to cover the 9.5, which they have covered in both games with Henigan at the helm, and both teams to go over the 40.5, which they have done in each of Henigan’s starts and in seven of their eight meetings.
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Navy-Memphis Week 3 Betting Pick: Memphis -9.5/Over 40.5 -110 at DraftKings
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