The Louisville Cardinals will take the road to face the NC State Wolfpack on Friday night. You’ll be able to tune into this game via ESPN. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can BetMGM promo code for your first bet back up to $1,500 — or $200 in bonus bets.
Louisville-NC State Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 5
Louisville-NC State Betting Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Louisville: -165 | NC State: +140
Louisville -3.5: -105 | NC State +3.5: -115
Over 55.5: -110 | Under 55.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Louisville-NC State Pick & Prediction
If you don’t have anything else going on this Friday night, this ACC battle might be of interest. The resurgent Louisville Cardinals will visit the NC State Wolfpack as a slight road favorite, and I expect head coach Jeff Brohm to keep winning in his first year at the helm of his alma mater. The Cardinals rank a ferocious fifth in yards per play (7.7), which far outranks 103rd-ranked NC State (4.6). It’s looking like Brohm brought the Spoilermaker magic to Louisville, and a big road win should be in the cards for him.
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The Cardinals have a massive leg up on offense. Quarterback Jack Plummer, who looked like a solid but unspectacular product at Purdue before transferring to Cal, may finally be reaching his ceiling. He ranks seventh in ing efficiency (189.1) and third in yards per attempt (11.5) in Brohm’s offense this year. He’ll face Brennan Armstrong, who ranks 101st in ing efficiency and 98th in yards per attempt (6.4).
Although NC State has played a more challenging schedule and boasts a tougher defense, I’m fading the Wolfpack at home this week. NC State narrowly beat bad Connecticut and Virginia teams and suffered a blowout beatdown to Notre Dame. Louisville eked out one-possession road wins over Georgia Tech and Indiana but blew out Boston College at home just a week after they challenged Florida State.
I also just have more faith in Jeff Brohm as a coach than Dave Doeren, especially in this spot. Doeren’s Wolfpack have gone 48-22 at home under his leadership but are a terrible 4-16 as home underdogs. The Boilermakers went 14-14 on the road under Brohm but were 6-5 as road favorites, winning by 7.4 points per game. The game environment in Raleigh is somewhat concerning, but Plummer’s 150.5 road ing efficiency grade is still far better than Armstong’s 122.7 home grade.
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We bought Louisville on the moneyline in the early week column. Since then, the number has moved slightly in favor of the Cardinals. The best price is now the -165 (62.3%) at BetMGM. Pregame reports that 70% of the handle is backing Louisville on only 47% of the tickets. A few college football models have us beating or even with the market with this one — Parker Fleming’s model gives Louisville a win probability of 71.3%, while the Fremeau Efficiency Index puts that number right at 62.3%. I bought the Cardinals as part of a five-team round robin, and I recommend getting some exposure to the moneyline as a straight bet.
Louisville-NC State Week 5 Pick: Louisville ML -165 at BetMGM
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