As the college football season picks up speed, we can expect more quality games between quality opponents. We’re still in the doldrums of non-conference play, for the most part, so the pickings are somewhat slim. Still, we can learn a few things from these games regardless, so let’s dive into my key lessons from Week 1 before diving into the early college football odds for Week 2 — as well as a free college football Week 2 expert pick. If you need more college football +EV betting.
College Football Week 2 Expert Picks & Early Odds
College Football Week 2 Expert Picks & Early Odds
What We Learned in Week 1…
Here are 10 rapid-fire notes I have after watching Week 1 and thumbing through the box scores.
1. Notre Dame’s secondary will be a problem. Allowing -0.21 EPA per is incredibly efficient; no college defense finished better than -0.01 last season.
The Irish posted such strong numbers against a Texas A&M team with a third-year quarterback with NFL Draft hype at the helm in Conner Weigman.
2. D.J. Uiagalelei hasn’t improved at all. In 2022, DJU completed 61.9% of his throws for a ing efficiency score of 135.
Across two ACC games for Florida State, he has completed 58% of his throws for a score of 116.5.
Head coach Mike Norvell didn’t exactly set him up for success with good play-calls, but still.
3. Despite offseason turmoil, Arizona’s offense looks legit. Returning quarterback Noah Fifita completed 61.3% of his throws for 13.6 yards per attempt (Y/A) and a ing efficiency score of 211.8.
After losing head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, the Wildcats brought in Brent Brennan from San Jose State and offensive coordinator Dino Babers from Syracuse. The offense looks great so far!
4. Vanderbilt looks like another service academy — except they’ve got a real quarterback. The Commodores ran 72.7% of the time (ittedly inflated due to some Pavia scrambles) and chewed up 31.4 seconds per play.
Over a full season, those rates would’ve ranked third and 133rd (dead last), respectively, last season. Navy (71%) ran the ball less last season.
5. The South Carolina Gamecocks are bad at football. Yes, adding running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders was a much-needed move after last season, but with quarterback Spencer Rattler now gone, this team has an even bigger hole.
Starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers completed 43.5% of his throws for 5 Y/A and a ing efficiency score of 85. As a team, South Carolina averaged only 2.9 points per opportunity. They totaled 23 despite routinely benefiting from good starting field position.
The Gamecocks were playing against Old Dominion, who went 6-7 last year.
6. Drew Allar and the Penn State Nittany Lions may have taken a big step forward. Lots of Allar skeptics jumped on West Virginia this week, only for Allar to complete 64.7% of his throws for 12.7 Y/a and a ing efficiency score of 229.7.
Although Allar also completed 72.4% of his throws for 11.2 Y/A and a score of 200.7 last year against West Virginia, with a new offensive coordinator on the staff in Andy Kotelnicki, the Nittany Lions could finally have a much-needed vertical attack.
7. LSU took a big step forward on defense that isn’t obvious. At first blush, LSU allowing 7.2 yards per play (Y/P) after allowing 6 Y/P may not seem notable.
But a look at the peripherals, namely havoc, paints a more encouraging picture. LSU generated havoc 27.6% of the time, including a 15.5% havoc rate in the front seven and a 12.1% rate in the secondary.
The total for Sunday’s LSU-USC game closed at 67. Although under bettors were likely sweating overtime at the end, the final USC touchdown brought us to just 47.
8. Dillon Gabriel’s debut for Oregon went better than the final score suggests. The Ducks totaled only 24 points to beat FCS Idaho by 10. However, Gabriel completed 83.7% of his throws for 7.8 Y/A and a ing efficiency score of 162.3.
Oregon recorded an average success rate of 58.5% in the first half before slowing down substantially to an average of 35% in the second half.
Head coach Dan Lanning seemingly didn’t care about covering the 49.5 — or forcing this one over the 60.5.
9. The Miami Hurricanes are so back. Could you have written a better script for the Canes? Florida State stumbles to an 0-2 start in conference play while Clemson gets embarrassed by Georgia — and all before the first regular-season AP Poll comes out.
Before the start of the season, the Canes were +450 to win the ACC. After their dominant 41-17 win over the Florida Gators, and the aforementioned losses by ACC rivals, they’re already down to +180.
While I will always be skeptical of head coach Mario Cristobal due to his fireable loss to Georgia Tech last year (just take a knee!), I’m net more skeptical of the rest of the ACC right now.
10. Tennessee and new quarterback Nico Iamaleava did everything they needed to do. Sure, the Vols were playing FCS Chattanooga, but they still won 69-3. Iamaleava completed 78.6% of his throws for 11.2 Y/A and a ing efficiency score of 208.1.
We saw Iamaleava dominate against Iowa in the Citrus Bowl last year, too, dismantling a solid Iowa defense in a blowout 35-0 win.
While getting excited about a win over an FCS program feels foolhardy, the Vols looked bad versus FCS Austin Peay (30-13) early last season. Conversely, their electric 2022 season saw them dismantle Ball State (59-10) and Akron (63-6) early.
Early College Football Odds for Week 2
Let’s look at some of the college football odds at BetMGM for Week 2’s most significant games. An asterisks indicates a neutral-site game.
Texas @ Michigan
Spread: Texas -7.5
Total: O/U 44
Arkansas @ Oklahoma State
Spread: Arkansas +7.5
Total: O/U 62.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky
Spread: Kentucky -10
Total: O/U 42.5
Tennessee @ NC State*
Spread: Tennessee -7.5
Total: O/U 60.5
Iowa State @ Iowa
Spread: Iowa -2.5
Total: O/U 35.5
Baylor @ Utah
Spread: Utah -14.5
Total: O/U 53.5
Kansas @ Illinois
Spread: Kansas -5.5
Total: O/U 55.5
Colorado @ Nebraska
Spread: Nebraska -7.5
Total: O/U 57.5
College Football Expert Picks for Week 2
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or sign up for your favorite experts to get all their picks!
I posted one play to my Discord via expert pick we’re about to discuss.
You’re going to want to buy Kentucky -10 before that line disappears. South Carolina’s run-heavy offense won’t be able to move the ball at all against the Wildcats, and quarterback LaNorris Sellers won’t be able to make up the differencei nthe ing game.
But I already posted that one, so let’s discuss our next college football expert pick for Week 2. Although we’re 5-7 (-0.6U) thus far, we’re actually 5-3 (+3.9U) on pre-game bets, including 3-0 (+4.6U) on totals.
No total stands out as more flagrantly mispriced than the one for Saturday’s game between the Navy Midshipmen and the Temple Owls — at least at BetMGM. They’re the last book hanging a 43.5. This is down to 42.5 or 43 everywhere else.
The logic here should be obvious. Navy, a service academy, uses a slow-paced option offense. The Midshipmen ran 71% of the time last year and took 29.5 seconds per play. They were a bit faster than usual in Week 1, averaging 27.5 against FCS Bucknell, but I suspect they’ll slow down this week.
On the other side, Temple ran an up-tempo 23.5 seconds per play last season, but they were fine taking 28.2 seconds per play in their blowout loss to Oklahoma last week. If the game gets out of hand early, the Owls are content to tap out and work the clock, which, given their lack of talent up and down the roster, is well within their range of outcomes this week.
Last year, Navy and Temple combined for 50 points, 25 of which were scored in the fourth quarter. Don’t expect Navy’s defense to crumble like it did last season. The Midshipmen should control the line of attack all day as they shut down the Owls, just as the 13.5-point spread suggests, helping us stay under the 43.5. Although it’d be great to get the key number of 44, I don’t see this one getting there.
College Football Expert Pick for Week 2: Navy/Temple Under 43.5 -110 at BetMGM
