There is nothing like rolling into the first official full slate of college football after nailing UMass in Week 0. This week provides a bunch of games spread across three days, culminating with some major matchups through Saturday evening. While the number of games increases from a pick standpoint, more value seems to jump out with dogs this time, especially compared to last week. Do not expect anything truly massive or shocking this week; Rice is not going to win at Texas, nor is Ohio State going to trip up at Indiana. There is one game featuring a well-known school that does stand a great chance of being knocked off in Texas, just not by the Longhorns.
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College Football Upset & Underdog Pick: Week 1
California-North Texas Odds
Odds via BetRivers
Cal: -305 | North Texas: +245
Cal -6.5: -115 | North Texas +6.5: -106
Over 54.5: -110 | Under 54.5: -110
California-North Texas Upset Pick
The Mean Green open their season at home in Denton with changes all around. Enter new head coach Eric Morris, who is charged with improving a North Texas offense that was already impressive last year. The school also enters a new era in the American Athletic Conference. A type of change can be palpable, as seen with charged fans just last week at Jacksonville State. There is no reason to dance around the other side of the ball, as North Texas was flat out atrocious on defense, something expected to immediately improve with a sweeping change of coaching personnel. So in comes Cal, who struggled last year to find much consistency and also brings changes to both coach and player. There is a lot of volatility for a road team stepping into a crazy environment laying nearly a touchdown (the line opened north of 7).
The Golden Bears have a new offensive coordinator in Jake Spavital leading a new quarterback in Sam Jackson. While the offense should be better than last year, it is not going to magically piece together like some movie montage. Here is what we know about Cal heading into this game: Head coach Justin Wilcox will have his defense ready to play. It should travel and keep Cal in the game, at least through the first half. Where things start to go off the rails for the Golden Bears will be on offense. Do not be shocked in the slightest to see North Texas’s Morris run circles around anything Jackson and the Cal offense have to offer.
North Texas will win this game at home outright with a better offense than its opponent. Cal will look to punish North Texas on the ground, trying to hit the biggest weakness last year for the Mean Green. But everyone on the planet knows that, at least everyone in Denton. Expect the biggest key from North Texas’s defensive scheme to be focusing on forcing Jackson to throw, ultimately moving away from the run game. Did we mention Cal’s home opener is Week 2 against Auburn? There is still plenty of meat on this bone, with a moneyline sitting at +245.
College Football Upset Pick for Week 1: North Texas +245 (BetRivers)
