The college football season is steadily winding to a close, but before we get worried about conference championships and bowl season, we still have some very meaningful games to play. The No. 5 Washington Huskies will visit the No. 10 Oregon State Beavers in what’s likely the most meaningful game of the week, and I’ve got my eye on one side of this matchup as my college football lock for Week 12. Let’s dive into this Washington-Oregon State pick and prediction. If you’re looking for more guide to betting on football.
College Football Lock for Week 12: Washington-Oregon State Pick
Washington-Oregon State Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Washington: -105 | Oregon State: -115
Washington +1: -110 | Oregon State -1: -110
Over 64.5: -110 | Under 64.5: -105
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Saturday, Nov. 18 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Washington-Oregon State Prediction
I wrote at length about the now-No. 10 Oregon State Beavers in my Pac-12 conference preview this offseason. They have become hard to overlook: Oregon State is 16-1 ATS at home since 2021. Head coach Jonathan Smith has turned this program into a juggernaut, especially in Corvallis, which is where they’ll play the Washington Huskies this weekend.
The Huskies deserve plenty of credit for their turnaround as well. Head coach Kalen DeBoer is 21-2 SU since his arrival in Seattle alongside quarterback Michael Penix Jr. However, the duo are only 12-10 ATS. While they are 2-0 ATS as an underdog, they are also 4-5 ATS on the road.
It’s time for the chickens to come to roost for Penix and this Washington team. The Huskies may be 10-0, but they haven’t looked all that dominant on their way there. Oregon nearly knocked off Washington in Seattle. The next week, Arizona State gave the Huskies a scare, and Washington needed a fourth-quarter comeback to win. Stanford played Washington close the next week. USC was tied with Washington at the start of the fourth quarter but ultimately lost. Utah led Washington until deep in the third quarter.
Oregon State is an unimpressive 7-2, but they have actually looked a bit stabler than Washington — at least when playing at home. The Beavers beat Utah by two scores at home in September. They beat UCLA by 12 at home in mid-October as well. They also rolled over Stanford at home by 45 last week. Their road losses to Washington State and Arizona were bad, but they were just that: road losses. Oregon State is a far better team at home.
Week 12’s road date with Oregon State is a nightmare matchup for Washington. The Beavers combine the Pac-12’s third-best rushing offense by expected points added (EPA) with the fourth-best ing defense. Oregon State ranks 10th overall in yards per rush (5.2, which improves to 5.4 at home) and 44th in yards allowed per attempt (7, which improves to 6.2 at home). These factors should allow Oregon State to minimize Penix’s production while keeping the ball out of his hands.
Washington’s defense also matches up poorly against this Oregon State team. The Huskies own the Pac-12’s second-worst defense against the run by EPA. Washington ranks 77th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.4, which improves to 4.3 on the road). That unit must now stop the elite trio of quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei and running backs Deshaun Fenwick and Damien Martinez, who have combined for 1,829 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. Uiagalelei wasn’t here last year, but Fenwick and Martinez combined for 184 scrimmage yards and two scores in Seattle last year.
In short, former Heisman Trophy frontrunner Michael Penix Jr. is good, but he isn’t good enough to get past this plucky Oregon State team. He ranks just ninth in OddsShopper and your first bet paid back as a bonus bet up to $1,500!
