CCollege football rolls on with another exciting slate of games for Week 5. Conference play has begun, bringing potential playoff previews as top-tier programs face off. This also means fewer huge point spreads, which is helpful when analyzing the betting board. Last week, we had some success in this article, going 2-1 and cashing in on Temple as a nearly 2-1 underdog! Let’s keep that momentum going as we break down this weekend’s games.
With that in mind, let’s dive into some guide to college football +EV betting.
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College Football Expert Picks Today for Week 5: Saturday, Sept. 28
Best Game: Georgia -1.5 vs Alabama | College Football Expert Picks Today
There’s no doubt this is the marquee game of the week, but I’ll be honest—I don’t love it from a betting perspective. Both of these teams could easily end up in the playoffs, so it’s important to discuss it, as there will likely be many boosts and promos surrounding the matchup. Georgia is looking to go into Tuscaloosa and establish itself as the team to beat in the SEC. While they almost stumbled against Kentucky, they’ve otherwise been the dominant Georgia squad we’ve come to expect.
On the other side, Alabama has been equally impressive, scoring 42 or more points in all three games this season. Jalen Milroe is a legitimate Heisman candidate, and his dual-threat abilities will test Georgia’s defense in new ways. It’s strength versus strength, as Georgia’s defense hasn’t allowed a single touchdown all season. My biggest question lies with Alabama’s secondary, which is the one area where they may lack experience and could be tested.
With NFL talent all over the field, this will be a high-level contest. While I trust both quarterbacks, I think Alabama’s secondary is a potential weak spot, and Carson Beck may be able to exploit that with Georgia’s ing attack. While this isn’t my favorite bet on the board, I’m backing the Dawgs to get the win in Tuscaloosa.
Live Dog: Tulsa +210 vs North Texas | College Football Expert Picks
Much like Temple vs. Utah State last week, this is an under-the-radar matchup—and for good reason. Both teams are flawed in several areas, but that brings plenty of variance, which we want when betting on a +210 underdog. With the total near 70 points, both offenses should have success, and a timely stop or two could make all the difference.
Tulsa sits at 2-2 after a road win against Louisiana Tech last week, but now conference play begins. At times, their offense has looked fantastic with solid yards per play, but there are some glaring issues. Special teams have been a problem, with missed extra points and field goals already this season. They like to play fast, which will create opportunities against a North Texas defense ranked 112th in yards allowed per play. If Tulsa can capitalize on those chances, they’ll be in this game.
North Texas is 3-1 with a high-powered offense led by quarterback Chandler Morris. Like Tulsa, they should have plenty of opportunities to score, and they won’t mind a shootout if it comes to that. My main concern is North Texas’ defense, which has allowed over 40 points per game this season. While UNT might be the better team, I’ll gladly take +210 in what could be a back-and-forth affair.
Best College Football Expert Pick: Texas A&M -5.5 (-112)
I missed the best number on this line, but I still like Texas A&M at -5.5 against Arkansas in Arlington. Although it’s not technically a home game, there will be plenty of Aggie , and talent-wise, Texas A&M has advantages all over the field.
The Aggies are 3-1 after losing to Notre Dame in Week 1, but they’ve looked like a completely different team since. Freshman quarterback Marcel Reed has taken over, and the early results are promising. Reed’s dual-threat ability, four ing touchdowns, and zero interceptions thus far have been impressive. He performed well on the road at Florida, so playing in a more favorable environment here shouldn’t be an issue.
While Texas A&M has my interest, my main reason for backing them is wanting to fade Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 3-1 and coming off a win at Auburn, which is no easy task in the SEC.
However, if you dig into the box score, you’ll see Arkansas was outgained by nearly 100 yards and only won because Auburn turned the ball over five times. While Arkansas deserves some credit, that kind of performance isn’t sustainable.
Against a much better Texas A&M offense, I don’t see them replicating that success, which will put more pressure on their offense. Anything inside a touchdown is the number I’m looking for, so at -5.5, I’ll lay the points and call for Texas A&M to win comfortably.
