Nobody needs a bounce back week more than me and the column but there are some teams in a similar spot. We found some value worth attacking across the college football landscape with a pair of games tonight in Kansas kicking off the weekend. The Jayhawks host a 2-0 UNLV Rebels team as we test how proven they truly are. An hour later in Manhattan the 20th ranked Arizona Wildcats take on the home Cats. Only two games to play but there’s an angle in both, so let’s get to work with our college football expert picks for Week 3 (Friday).
For more of my picks, including exclusive VIP college plays, head over to my college football betting strategy guide.
College Football Expert Picks Today for Week 3: Friday, Sept. 13
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Nonetheless, with some model-based tools out of the way, which happened to help me turn around my profits in an insane way (read here!) as a heads up, let’s get to the games.
We’ll have the weekend covered, but these Week 3 college football expert picks are for Friday only.
Best Game: Arizona-Kansas State | College Football Expert Picks Today
Despite Arizona ing the Big 12 this will not count in the conference standings as the game was agreed upon years ago. That’s not the largest motivating factor but it’s certainly not a Big 12 rivalry quite yet, at least not officially. Both teams are ranked, both are undefeated on the year. The bigger question for the visiting Wildcats is whether they get their groove back on offense. As for K-State, it’s a little more focused – specifically can their offense stay on the field on third down.
According to OddsShopper’s free live odds page, Fliff has this at +9. Some books like DraftKings and FanDuel are offering +7.5 while the rest of the market is between 7 and the hook. This is a key distinction because anything over 7 is a play on the dog, primarily because of how close this game will be. 7 is fine but not ideal as the push is not only in play, but also impacting the final score.
Arizona is at its best letting it fly with Noah Fifita leading the ing attack. But despite opening with some fireworks, Fifita and the rest of the Cats offense was just good enough against Northern Arizona. Their biggest task tonight is limiting the pressure from K-State’s defensive front, the edge that ultimately favors the home team. Kansas State is more than ok getting the offense going on the ground, limiting touches for Arizona by controlling the clock, and getting out with a win. The difference is Arizona can be down 14-17 points but has the quick strike ability to work a backdoor cover of anything north of 7 points.
This should be a close one throughout the night with Kansas State getting the nod by a defensive turnover or even score. With that said, we’ll take the points.
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College Football Expert Pick for Week 3: Arizona +7.5 (+100 at BetRivers)
Best College Football Expert Pick: Kansas -9.5 vs UNLV
This line is on the move as the Jayhawks caught some steam. What was just north of a touchdown is now sitting comfortably as a 9.5 point spread favoring the home team. UNLV is 2-0 but questions remain about who they beat and how sustainable those performances can be. Unlike the previous game, this home team is not undefeated as Kansas comes off a rough 23-17 loss to Illinois. Neither team is truly tested in any real capacity and this might be the first litmus test for either squad ahead of the conference schedule.
The Jayhawks couldn’t live up to their potential on offense last week, but still have some big play capability in their system. They should be able to move the ball but holding on to it is a different story. What’s killed them – at least last week – was turnovers. That’s not an easy, automatic fix – especially taking on a team that might limit opposing possessions. UNLV is going to run, that’s what they do. They are led by QB Matthew Sluka and have three running backs over 100 yards rushing after two games. That’s a tough task for Kansas to just slow down, especially if they are turning it over.
It’s rare that a game will come down to one player but this might be one of those cases. We know Sluka and company want to run the ball, but what about Jalon Daniels and K-State’s chances? If the Jayhawks QB can make good throws on third down and extend drive for points – the key here – then UNLV’s rushing attack becomes less impactful throughout the game.
Be it a ground game or time of possession, the best play is under the total.
College Football Expert Pick for Week 3: Under 58 (-110 at HardRock)
Best College Football Betting Strategy Tips for Week 3
Looking for more college football expert picks? Check out the video below or simply click our college football week 3 expert picks link here to watch Ben Rasa and Matt Gajewski wax poetic about some of the weekends best college football bets.
