College Football Championship weekend is here. Meaning: conference titles are on the line and for some schools a chance at the College Football Playoff. It’s why you’re here for our Big 12 Championship pick as we go through our Texas-Oklahoma State prediction and preview.
There is no shortage of storyline and potential drama. From a betting perspective we have plenty of spots worth attacking. One game absolutely that factors into the National Championship picture is the Big 12 Championship which pairs spoiler Oklahoma State against a Texas team looking to improve their playoff chances.
Of all the conference championship games this is one of the more lopsided with the Longhorns sitting at a 14.5 point favorite per OddsShopper’s industry-leading college football odds tool. Lets dive into the matchup and where we should be putting our money.
Big 12 Championship Pick: Texas-Oklahoma State Prediction & Preview
Texas being just north of a two touchdown favorite in a game with a 55 point total shows that they are firing on both sides of the football right now. They have just a single loss on the season to Oklahoma. Couple that with the win at Alabama they have a legitimate case to make.
Quinn Ewers isn’t being asked to do everything and the backfield is heating up with 300 yards rushing last time out against Texas Tech. The numbers are solid on defense, even with the coverage on the backend being a little concerning against certain aerial attacks. Pace wise this team is in the middle of the road which is useful considering Oklahoma State probably wants to up the tempo.
For Oklahoma State, it’s been a roller coaster season to say the least. After a terrible 2-2 start they found their footing and made a run in conference play going 7-2. Needing to just beat lowly BYU last week they somehow nearly stumbled having to win in overtime against a team they should have easily crushed.
The Cowboys do have Ollie Gordon who is a premier back in the country and will be busy in this one. Although the wide receiver room isn’t household names they have plenty of guys who have seen action, and they’ll need to be sharp as Texas’ coverage is the way to attack. Tempo wise they want to play fast ranking 31st in seconds per play this year.
I don’t see many ways Texas gets tripped up here but laying 14.5 is a tough ask. Id rather back over 55 in a game I think Oklahoma State will find some offense in even if overmatched. Texas has shown several times they can hang 40, which if they do here should set us up for an easy win pushing over this total.
So what’s my Texas-Oklahoma State prediction? I’ll be rooting for points on Saturday in this one and think Over 55 still has some value on it across the betting markets.
My Big 12 Championship Pick: Over 55 -108 (DraftKings)
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