The College Football Playoff has arrived. Both semifinal games — Michigan vs. Alabama and Texas vs. Washington — will take place on a jam-packed slate of action this New Year’s Day. I’m excited, you’re excited, so let’s dive right into our top Michigan-Alabama pick and prediction for this year’s Rose Bowl. Make sure to use top bets for New Year’s Day!
Michigan-Alabama Odds, Pick & Prediction for the Rose Bowl
Michigan-Alabama Rose Bowl Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Michigan: -130 | Alabama: +110
Michigan -2.5: -105 | Alabama +2.5: -115
Over 45.5: -110 | Under 45.5: -110
Time: Monday, Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. ET
Rose Bowl Pick for Michigan-Alabama
The No. 1 Michigan Wolverines and No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide will do battle for a bid to the College Football National Championship Game. The Wolverines are riding high off an undefeated season, while the Tide are coming off a massive win over the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC championship game.
If you’re expecting offensive fireworks in this year’s Rose Bowl, you’re out of luck. These teams field two of the most talented defenses in college football. The Tide’s defense ranks a solid 21st in expected points added (EPA) allowed per game. The unit ranks ninth in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Importantly, Alabama’s defense ranks 27th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.7). They just held Georgia to 2.5 yards per rush. Michigan ranks 17th in rushing play percentage (59.6%), so if Alabama can limit their gains on the ground, we could be in for a low-scoring affair.
While Alabama’s defense is good, Michigan’s defense is better. The Wolverines rank sixth in EPA allowed per play and fourth in the FEI. The unit ranks fifth in both yards allowed per rush attempt (2.9) and yards allowed per attempt (5.8). Like Michigan, Alabama runs at a high clip — the Tide rank 14th in rushing play percentage (60.3%).
Ultimately, the total of 45.5 just feels a squeeze too high. Because of their run-heavy schemes, Alabama and Michigan rank 96th and 132nd in seconds per play, respectively, and the slow pacing should depress scoring. The FEI projects this game for 43.3 points, and I’m locking in the under 45.5 at odds of -110 across the market. You can even boost this wager to +136 for the first $25 at BetMGM!
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