Although most eyeballs will be on the Cowboys-Giants game tonight, real ones will have an eye (and some action) on tonight’s Army-Temple game. Service academy unders have been a popular “system” bet for years due to their run-heavy schemes, but this season, Army and Navy’s offenses have been electric. Anyway, let’s dive into the Army-Temple odds for Thursday. We’ll also get into our college football +EV betting.
Army-Temple Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction (Sept. 26)
Army-Temple Odds
Pick & analysis by here!
Army: -485 | Temple: +370
Army -12: -110 | Temple +12: -110
Over 46.5: -112 | Under 46.5: -108
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Army-Temple Expert Pick
I alluded to the collapse of the service academies under system earlier, but let’s get the trends on paper. Navy is 0-3 to the under. Army is 1-2.
While Air Force is 3-0 to the under, that still gives us an overall 4-5 record. Both Army and Navy are top five teams in offensive EPA over average at the moment, too.
But sharp bettors know that trends are just numbers about past performance — they don’t necessarily mean anything about future outcomes. Still, Army is 133-114-4 (53.9%) to the under since 2003.
With Army’s and Navy’s hot offensive starts, the books are starting to adjust by ratcheting up their totals. Tonight’s Army-Temple game is no exception. The total for this one ranges between 46.5 and 48.
Efficiency is only half the story. As NBA bettors are well aware, efficient offenses that play at a slow pace are generally favorable for under bettors. That’s what we’ve got here.
Army ranks 134th in seconds per play (35.6). That’s 1.6 seconds slow than the next-slowest team and 4.4 seconds slower than the 132nd-ranked team.
That 4.4-second gap between 134th and 132nd is equivalent to the gap between 132nd and 71st. Meanwhile, Army also ranks first in rushing play percentage (87%).
What about Temple? They’re 2-2 to the under (and 15-13 to the under overall during head coach Stan Drayton’s tenure). They’re also well below average in offensive EPAOA.
My concern with Temple is the lack of defense. Navy dropped 38 points on them earlier in the season, including a pair of one-play touchdowns — a Blake Horvath run and an Alex Tecza run. Army uses a similar option offense, but we’re hoping for dissimilar results.
Temple also made a quarterback change two weeks ago, shifting toward Rutgers transfer Evan Simon. Through two games (which includes a beatdown of lowly Utah State), Simon sports a nice 179.6 ing efficiency grade with seven touchdowns to one interception. However, that efficiency score is far higher than his career average (124).
Let’s play the under and hope Army controls the pace of this one while Simon regresses. Explosives are my main concern, but hopefully Temple’s defense has learned something after allowing 38 points to Navy a few weeks back. This total is trading as high as 48 on Hard Rock (okay, it’s 47.5 there, but this is a mispriced alt line) yet is 46.5 at Pinnacle. Make sure to add this outlier number to your card.
Army-Temple Expert Pick: Under 48 -115 at Hard Rock
