One of the beautiful things about the expanded college football playoff is we are guaranteed to get a true underdog in the dance. There are several “mid majors” vying for the shot to take on the blue bloods, but that picture is just getting started since we are in Week 3, and the undefeated Texas State Bobcats are in the mix. They’ll play tonight, so let’s dive into the Arizona State-Texas State odds for Thursday. We’ll also dive into our college football +EV betting.
Arizona State-Texas State Odds, Expert Pick & Prediction (Sept. 12)
Arizona State-Texas State Odds
Pick & analysis by here!
Arizona State: -110 | Texas State: -110
Arizona State -1: -102 | Texas State +1: -118
Over 60.5: -112 | Under 60.5: -108
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Arizona State-Texas State Expert Pick
To get to the playoff, Texas State will have to get past Arizona State tonight, which represents one of the biggest challenges on their schedule. This game may not have been circled on many people’s calendars, but it’s a great opportunity in the betting market to jump on a team that is perpetually undervalued — and one that cashed a ticket for us just last weekend.
Right now, the line sits with the Texas State Bobcats as a slight 1-point home dog the visiting Arizona State Sun Devils. This Texas State squad sits at 2-0 with a win over FCS Lamar and then a 49-10 demolition of a UTSA squad that many people were high on coming into the season.
This team has experience all over the field, but a potent rushing attack and a dual-threat quarterback in Jordan McCloud have to be some of the biggest weapons. The concern with this team is turnovers, as they were amongst the worst in the country last year in fumbles, and we saw that in Week 1 against Lamar.
Last week, they only had one turnover, and we saw how good they looked. Tonight, at home, they need to play a clean game if they want to grab this win over Arizona State.
Speaking of Arizona State, they also sit at 2-0 after crushing Wyoming and then beating an SEC opponent in Mississippi State. I’m not going to knock a team for taking care of business, but the more I dove in, the more questions I have to ask.
To start, Wyoming just lost to an FCS team and had two instant turnovers in that game that unraveled the plan early. It was a similar story against Mississippi State: Arizona State had 0 turnovers, converted every single fourth down attempt and only threw for 69 yards.
Running the ball over 50 times works if you are in control and can play from ahead, but if they fall behind early, I have serious questions. Overall, through two games, Arizona State has 0 turnovers, a 100% fourth down conversion rate, and two opponents that allowed them to play to their strengths.
As you can imagine, I’m riding with my Texas State Bobcat team once again here, as they’ve been undervalued in the market for the past year or so. Last week in my Discord, we had a rare 2U play on them against UTSA, and we all saw the results there.
This is going to be a significant step up in level of competition, but I’m banking on McCloud and this offense being up to the challenge. If Texas State takes care of the ball, forces Arizona State to throw and leans on this crowd, we will see them march to 3-0 and be one step closer to being that Cinderella team in the College Football Playoff.
