March Madness is finally here, and I have you covered with all your best bet needs for the tournament. After a chaotic Thursday slate, we keep it moving with an exciting crop of games on Friday. Featuring looks at Florida Atlantic-Northwestern and New Mexico-Clemson, let’s look at our Round of 64 Friday best bets!
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Round of 64 Friday Best Bets
No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 9 Northwestern
There has been a weird revisionist phenomenon with this Florida Atlantic team leading up to the tournament. Many have said that the Owls only made the tournament due to last season’s run and were undeserving. They finished 41st in adjusted efficiency this season while facing the 93rd-ranked strength of schedule. They played the 40th-toughest non-conference strength of schedule, a stretch that included impressive wins over tournament teams Texas A&M and Arizona.
Eight of the Owls’ top nine players from last season’s Final Four team returned, giving them the most continuity in the country per KenPom. They also have a clear advantage in of depth over a Northwestern team that ranks 303rd in bench minutes and has multiple injury concerns. Sharpshooting guard Ty Berry and defensive stalwart center Matthew Nicholson suffered season-ending injuries.
Nicholson’s absence is especially important here due to the matchup. FAU’s Vladislav Goldin is a massive presence in the paint, averaging 15.6 points per game this season. Nicholson would have been able to match Goldin’s size, and he’s the team’s best defensive player per Evan Miya’s Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating.
Without Nicholson, the Wildcats, who already rank below-average defending the rim per Synergy, are in danger here. FAU is the fourth-most efficient post-up offense in the country per Synergy, creating real matchup problems for the Wildcats. Northwestern also ranks outside the top 300 in defensive free throw rate, and foul trouble could become an issue for a lineup whose depth is already being stretched thin.
Berry’s presence as a perimeter defender would also have been massive for the Wildcats in this game. Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin are dynamic scoring guards capable of taking over a game. They are a huge reason why the Owls rank 21st in the country in half-court efficiency. Meanwhile, the Wildcats rank outside the top 240 on defense in the half-court.
If Northwestern were healthy, it would make sense for this game to be priced at a pick’em. They aren’t, however, and FAU has the offensive talent to directly attack those lineup deficiencies. Boo Buie is an awesome player who has been a joy to watch over his career, but he can’t do it alone, and I believe the Wildcats are overmatched in this game.
Round of 64 Friday best bets: FAU -2.5 (play to -4.5)
No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 6 Clemson
While buy-low, sell-high market mechanics come more into play during the regular season, I believe we still have a great opportunity in this game. New Mexico has reached its peak in market rating, coming off four wins in four days to win the Mountain West Championship. As a result, college basketball fans love the Lobos.
Meanwhile, many have written off Clemson following their 21-point loss to Boston College in the first round of the ACC Tournament. However, teams in that spot have often been profitable to back in the tournament. Teams coming off a loss of 20+ points are 23-10-1 ATS (70%) in the Round of 64 since 2005.
I had high hopes for Clemson entering the ACC Tournament as they were 7-3 in their ten games prior to their first-round exit. The return of Jack Clark from injury was crucial for the team, as he provides excellent defensive versatility and a switchable front-court option. Since his return on February 6th, the Tigers rank 21st in adjusted efficiency.
Clark will be especially important against a New Mexico offense featuring dynamic guard play with Jaelen House, Donovan Dent, and Jamal Mashburn. With that trio leading the way, the Lobos are lethal in transition, ranking in the 92nd percentile per Synergy. However, Clemson has the 48th-lowest turnover rate in the country and limits opponents to the 58th-lowest rate of transition offense.
New Mexico aims to attack the rim at the 31st-highest frequency in the half-court. However, Clemson boasts an elite interior defense that ranks third in near-proximity FG% allowed per Haslametrics. Overall, the Tigers have a huge size advantage in this game, ranking 22nd in average height, while New Mexico ranks 191st.
That size advantage will also materialize when Clemson is on offense. The Tigers attack through the post at the second-highest rate in the country, while the Lobos rank outside the top 300 in defending the post. Expect a big game out of P.J. Hall, who leads the way with 18.8 points per game.
Ultimately, I see this as a tremendous sell-high spot for New Mexico against a Clemson team that has had more time to get healthy and prepare. If you need one more push, New Mexico has historically struggled in the NCAA Tournament, going 1-7 ATS since 1999. Mountain West teams are now 37-70 (34.6%) ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2003, while double-digit seeds in the Mountain West are 2-27 SU and 5-22-2 ATS (19%) all-time in the tournament.
Round of 64 Friday best bets: Clemson +2.5 (play to +1.5)
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