Historically, championship teams in men’s college basketball come with a certain statistical profile. Over the last 24 years, 22 champions have ranked inside the top 18 in adjusted offense while 23 have ranked top 37 in adjusted defense. The only exceptions to these rules were UConn (2011, 2014) and Baylor (2021). Keeping these metrics in mind, let’s make some March Madness predictions as we dive into a few teams to pick or fade in the big dance. Hungry for more college basketball content? Check out our college basketball betting model (currently available for $1 this week with code “PURDUE”) or the rest of our college basketball articles.
March Madness Predictions: Men’s College Basketball National Championship Picks & Fades
March Madness Predictions: Teams to Pick for the National Championship
Creighton +1100
Statistically, Creighton ranks 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 26th on defense, falling squarely into the Championship parameters.
This team checks plenty of boxes as well. Their roster contains three elite players with Ryan Kalkbrenner, Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman. Alexander runs the point and ranks 206th nationally in assist rate. Scheierman shoots 37% from three and averages nine rebounds per game. Kalkbrenner stands 7-0 and provides excellent rim protection.
Creighton lacks the depth of some of the other elite teams, but they reside in a workable part of the bracket. The Bluejays currently sit as 12.5-point favorites over Akron and will face the winner of South Carolina and Oregon. South Carolina comes in 43rd on offense and 56th on defense, while Oregon needed to win the Pac-12 to even reach the big dance.
Duke +1400
Similarly, Duke ranks tenth on adjusted offense and 29th on defense. The Blue Devils also play with a well-rounded roster, led by 7-foot Kyle Filipkowski at center.
They also play with an elite backcourt that consists of Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor and Jared McCain. All three shoot at least 37% from three with Roach and McCain above 40%.
Duke faces an injury-weakened Vermont team in the Round of 64 before facing the winner of Wisconsin and James Madison. If Duke can survive, Houston also has injury concerns as the top seed in this region.
March Madness Predictions: Teams to Fade for the National Championship
Tennessee +850
Statistically, Tennessee could have the most problems winning a National Championship out of all the top two seeds. While elite on defense (No. 3 in adjusted defense), this team only ranks 33rd in adjusted offense.
The Volunteers come in 135th in effective field goal percentage and rank 159th in three-point shooting. Much of their offense comes down to the creation of Dalton Knecht in isolation. While Knecht shoots 39.7% from three, no one else on the roster shoots above 35% from beyond the arc.
Tennessee also will run into slow, volatile teams in every game on their way to the elite eight. Out of all the potential matchups, Texas’ 196th tempo ranks the fastest of this group. With three straight volatile games on the way to the elite eight, Tennessee would then likely face Purdue, Kansas or Gonzaga, all of which would present another stiff challenge.
Kentucky +1400
One of the most volatile teams in the country, Kentucky ranks fifth in offensive efficiency and 123rd on defense. This team has given up at least 75 points in eight straight games with numerous questionable losses on the profile.
Overall, the talent remains undeniable, with future NBA players like Rob Dillingham, DJ Wagner and Reed Sheppard on the roster. However, this team has failed to consistently defend or guard the rim despite playing with three seven-footers.
Kentucky’s draw works in their favor with potential games against Texas Tech, NC State, Florida, Colorado and Marquette before the Elite Eight. All have injury concerns or shouldn’t be in the bracket altogether. However, the Wildcats would still need win three more games beyond this area of the bracket to clinch a national championship.
