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March Madness Best Bets: Round 1 Predictions and Projections (March 17)

March 17, 2023 | 8:06 AM by Matt Gajewski

With March Madness finally here, Friday continues with a full 16-game slate. This article will examine our March Madness best bets for Friday and offer professional opinions and evaluations to assist you in making wise and well-informed betting choices, with the aid of OddsShopper’s college basketball odds and best bets resources. Nonetheless, onto our NCAA Tournament Round 1 predictions and projections.

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March Madness Best Bets & NCAA Tournament Round 1 Predictions

March Madness Best Bets: Drake vs. Miami

Winner of the Missouri Valley Conference, Drake now takes on the top seed in the ACC in Miami. Drake beat Bradley to take down their conference, while Miami lost to Duke in the ACC semi-final. Much of the dialogue this week has focused on the status of Norchad Omier. Omier has been practicing this week, pointing to his potential availability here.

As for advantages, Miami has many. One of the best shooting teams in the country, the Hurricanes rank 21st in two point percentage and 44th in three point percentage. They also rank 70th in rebounding, while Drake checks in 77th. Some will point to Drake’s height advantage, but every team facing Miami has a height advantage. These teams actually play similarly, except Miami faces Duke, Virginia, Pitt on a nightly basis, while Drake faces Bradley and Indiana State.

NCAA Tournament Round 1 Prediction: Miami -1.5 (-115) at BetMGM

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March Madness Best Bets: Providence vs. Kentucky

An intriguing first round matchup, fifth ranked Big East team Providence will battle Kentucky here. Providence lost in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament to UConn by a score of 73-66. Kentucky finished third in the SEC, only to lose to Vanderbilt in the quarterfinals. While Kentucky appears to be getting healthier and could hold value against the spread, the total actually looks a little more enticing here.

Looking at the under, the pace projects to be about average in this game at first glance. Providence actually ranks above the NCAA average in possessions per game on the year. However, Providence has significantly slowed their pace of late. Since February 1st, Providence ranks 262nd in adjusted pace. Kentucky also ranks 233rd in adjusted pace in that span, pointing to a slower overall game.

From there, Providence has the lineup to potential neutralize Oscar Tshiebwe inside. Kentucky ranks third in rebounding, but Providence actually checks in tenth. With a balanced lineup across the board, these teams will battle strength on strength and potentially neutralize the advantages of their opponent.

NCAA Tournament Round 1 Prediction: under 144.5 (-115) at BetMGM

Categories NCAAB
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