With just a couple of days remaining until we have an official March Madness bracket, conference championships have been providing a ton of excitement. In this article, I’ll break down my best bets on the Friday slate, featuring Wisconsin vs. Northwestern, St. John’s vs. UConn, UTEP vs. Sam Houston State, and UT Arlington vs. Tarleton State. Onto our continued college basketball predictions series!
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Conference championship week is one of the best of the entire calendar year for sports betting. There are hundreds of games this week, all with postseason stakes, which means plenty of investment opportunities. I’m providing four write-ups for Friday’s games in this article.
Lines will always move overnight, so I’m providing the number I’d play each game up to. Be sure to have multiple sportsbooks available so you can shop for the best available line. Let’s find some winners.
College Basketball Predictions and Best Bets Today
C-USA: No. 5 UTEP vs. No. 4 Sam Houston State
Schedule-wise, this is a brutal spot for UTEP. They played a slugfest against Liberty that wrapped up at 7:30 PM local time on Thursday and now turn around 16 hours later for this game against Sam Houston State. The Bearkats, meanwhile, have been off since their Wednesday win over FIU. They won that game by 19 and no player logged over 30 minutes in the rout.
These teams met twice during the regular season, and Sam Houston swept the series with an average margin of victory of 7.5 points. Expect plenty of turnovers in this game as UTEP ranks 344th in turnover rate on offense and 1st in turnovers forced on defense. However, the Bearkats had more turnovers in both games than the Miners, and they still swept the series.
Sam Houston State should get plenty of offense at the rim, where they love to attack. The Bearkats rank 30th in near-proximity attempt rate per Haslametrics, while UTEP ranks 347th in near-proximity FG% allowed on defense. That advantage should only be amplified, given the Bearkats’ edge in rest.
I bet on Sam Houston State to win the C-USA Championship, partially because I knew they’d find themselves in this favorable spot. I’m backing them to cover the spread here. Eat ’em up Kats!
Best College Basketball Predictions and Bet: Sam Houston State -3.5 (play to -6)
Big Ten: No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Northwestern
At the Badgers’ peak, they were being discussed as a potential two-seed in the Big Ten tournament. They ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll. After a 3-8 stretch to close out the regular season, they finally looked like a team ready to turn the corner in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament, earning an 87-56 win over Maryland. In some cases, I’d favor the team with the bye against the team playing a back-to-back, but Wisconsin didn’t play anyone for over 23 minutes as the game was a rout.
The Badgers still boast an elite offense, ranking 14th in adjusted efficiency. They should find success against Northwestern, who ranks 235th in eFG% on defense. In particular, Wisconsin ranks in the 91st percentile in post-up efficiency per Synergy. That’s a massive problem for Northwestern, who will be without center Matthew Nicholson in this game.
Nicholson is the Wildcats’ best defensive player, leading the team in Evan Miya’s Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating. The Wildcats rank below average in defending the rim per Synergy, and that only gets tougher with Nicholson out of the lineup. Expect Steven Crowl to find much more success in this game than he did in their first matchup, when he finished with just six points on 2-6 shooting, as Nicholson’s defense was a huge deterrent.
The Wildcats enter this game with troubling health concerns. They are missing guard Ty Berry and Nicholson. Ryan Langborg has also dealt with an ankle injury down the stretch. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has much better depth, especially with freshman John Blackwell continuing to emerge – he’s averaging 14.2 points over his last five games, a stretch during which he’s seen his minutes spike to 20+ in every outing.
Wisconsin’s market rating is deflated due to their most recent tough stretch, but I’m ready to buy back in on the Badgers. I’m betting on them beating this injured Northwestern team.
Best College Basketball Predictions and Bet: Wisconsin -3 (play to -4.5)
Big East: No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 1 UConn
St. John’s is playing its best basketball of the season at the right time, as it has won six straight games. Yesterday, it trounced Seton Hall, as six different players ended the game scoring in double digits. The Johnnies are loaded with senior guards who consistently make smart plays, including Penn transfer Jordan Dingle, whose improvement has been evident over this latter part of the season.
In their win over Seton Hall on Thursday, Rick Pitino told his team he wanted them to play “racehorse basketball.” The Johnnies sprinted up and down the floor and embraced the wholesale hockey line changes with all of the team’s depth being utilized. That same approach can make a UConn team uncomfortable that ranks 324th in adjusted tempo this season.
Ultimately, I’m not sure how much UConn cares about this tournament. The Huskies have already secured a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and are set on repeating as national champions. They played with their food for an entire half against Xavier, and while their clear talent edge won out in the second half, they were only up by one point at halftime.
Just over a month ago, St. John’s was priced as a 3.5-point home underdog against UConn, and now this line is at 9.5. Alex Karaban didn’t play in that game, but a six-point line increase here is still lofty, given the Red Storm’s strong form. St. John’s led at halftime in both losses to UConn this season. Of course, a full 40-minute effort will be needed here, but I trust St. John’s to put it together as they still need all the resume bolstering they can get to secure a spot in the tournament.
Best College Basketball Predictions and Bet: St. John’s +9.5 (play to +8.5)
WAC: No. 3 UT Arlington vs. No. 2 Tarleton State
UT Arlington was absolutely dominant in their win over Stephen F. Austin on Thursday, setting the single-game WAC Tournament scoring record with 109 points. That dominant showing allowed them not to play a single player for more than 28 minutes, which is crucial as they face Tarleton State one day later.
Tarleton has won 11 of their last 12 games, but they benefitted massively from late-game variance and went 10-2 in conference games decided by five or fewer points. That resulted in the Texans ranking number one in KenPom’s luck ratings. That late-game luck included two two-point wins over UT Arlington.
Meanwhile, UT Arlington has been the third-most improved team in the country since the beginning of February, per Bart Torvik, going 10-2 over that span. After their win on Thursday, they now rank 58th in adjusted efficiency since the beginning of February, which is better than even 27-4 Grand Canyon.
Phillip Russell is a superstar guard who missed time earlier this season, but the SEMO transfer has been a monster lately. On Thursday, he scored a season-high 30 points and hit 7 three-pointers. I’m betting on Russell leading UTA to a win over an overvalued Tarleton team here.
Best College Basketball Predictions and Bet: UT Arlington -2 (play to -3.5)
