March Madness has FINALLY arrived, and with it in full swing, our experts are chomping at the bit to get their action down. We’re all excited, so let’s dive straight into our top college basketball picks today as our experts break down their best college basketball bets for Wednesday, including a Samford-Kansas prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our other sportsbook promotions for March Madness.
College Basketball Picks Today: Expert Bets for Thursday, March 21
College Basketball Expert Pick #1: Nevada-Dayton Prediction
The Mountain West regular season champions, the Nevada Wolfpack enter this game with a 26-7 record. They draw a Dayton team that received an at-large bid after finishing 24-7 this year. Overall, Nevada ranks 36th in offensive efficiency and 38th on defense. Meanwhile, Dayton comes in 22nd in offensive and 91st on defense.
Similar to Morehead State, Dayton enters this game with a questionable resume. Despite their record, they do not hold a win over a single team in the NCAA Tournament. Dayton did knock off NIT-bound Cincinnati, which ranks as their single-best win this year.
Schedule aside, Dayton does play a well-rounded style of basketball. All-American DaRon Holmes II and Nate Santos occupy the interior, while the guards rank third nationally in 3-point percentage.
Unfortunately for them, Nevada presents a tricky matchup stylistically. The Wolfpack play a lineup with decent size and actually hold a rebounding edge. They also rank 38th in 3-point defense, which puts them towards the top of any opponent Dayton has faced this year.
As for Nevada, this team plays an experienced lineup, led by Kenan Blackshear and 3-point specialist Jarod Lucas. Nevada ranks 33rd in 3-point shooting themselves, giving them the ability to trade with a Dayton team that attempts to slow the pace of play. With an overall superior level of competition, Nevada remains worth a shot as a short favorite in this matchup
College Basketball Pick: Nevada -1 -110 at DraftKings
College Basketball Expert Pick #2: Colorado-Florida Prediction
OddsShopper’s college basketball betting tools recommend putting your money down on this Colorado-Florida full-game total before sharp bettors gobble up all the value.
BetMGM is offering the under 160.5 for only -115 despite the rest of the market taking action on this bet for -120 or steeper — and Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 158.5 for -108.
Using a market-based betting approach can feel weird, but it’s profitable. Between the start of the NBA season and the All-Star Break, the model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip and 5% on those wagered two hours before tip.
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College Basketball Pick: Colorado-Florida Under 160.5 -115 at BetMGM
College Basketball Expert Pick #3: Samford-Kansas Prediction
It’s a huge step up in the level of competition for Samford, but their style and ability to shoot 3-pointers will cause problems.
Nobody plays more than 25 minutes per game, and they are extremely physical given their depth. Kansas is walking wounded with Kevin McCullar Jr. out and Hunter Dickinson coming off a shoulder injury.
There’s no doubt Kansas has more talent, but stylistically, this is a matchup nightmare for the Jayhawks. I’ll grab the points with Samford, and if they shoot their 3-pointers at their season average, they are very live to win.
College Basketball Pick: Samford +7.5 -110 at FanDuel
— Ben Rasa
