On this Saturday slate, conference championships take center stage as several teams are vying for a title and a spot in the NCAA tournament. In this article, I’ll break down my best bets on the board, including college basketball picks and predictions for Nebraska-Illinois, NC State-North Carolina and UT Arlington-Grand Canyon. Make sure to check out our other college basketball articles and our college basketball betting tools!
Conference championship week is one of the best of the entire calendar year for sports betting. There are hundreds of games this week, all with postseason stakes, which means plenty of investment opportunities. I’m providing three write-ups for Saturday’s games in this article. Lines will always move overnight, so I’m providing the number I’d play each game up to. Be sure to have multiple sportsbooks available so you can shop for the best available line. Let’s find some winners.
College Basketball Picks & Predictions Today: March 16
Big Ten: Nebraska-Illinois College Basketball Pick & Prediction
I love the Cornhuskers here. Nebraska torched Indiana on Friday, winning 93-66, as they drained a whopping 14 3-pointers. Keisei Tominaga and Brice Williams each had 23 points in the game and hit four 3-pointers. I believe both guards will find plenty of success again in this matchup against an Illinois defense that has struggled recently.
The Illini rank 135th in adjusted defensive efficiency since February 1st, and it’s primarily due to their difficulties extending to the perimeter. Illinois opponents are hitting 40.7% of their three-pointers over that span, which ranks 350th in the country. While you could argue they’re overdue for regression in that regard, it’s tough for me to see that happening against Nebraska, who ranks 10th in spacing, per ShotQuality.
While the Huskers are generally known as a high-flying, sharpshooting team, they boast a quietly elite defense. Since February 1st, the Huskers rank second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have allowed opponents to hit just 44.1% of their 2-point shots, ranking 12th in the country.
Nebraska has an elite interior defense, ranking in the 85th percentile at the rim and allowing opponents to shoot at a top-25 rate at the rim. Defending Terrence Shannon Jr. is a different beast entirely, but I simply trust the Nebraska defense more than Illinois’ right now. I love getting over 4 points in this game, and I’m backing the red-hot Huskers continuing their elite run of form.
College Basketball Pick & Prediction Today: Nebraska +4.5 (Play to +3)
ACC: NC State-North Carolina College Basketball Pick & Prediction
Third-year head coach Hubert Davis is one win away from leading North Carolina to its first ACC Tournament Championship since 2016. With a win here, the Tar Heels can also secure the fourth No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament after Arizona fell to Oregon in the Pac-12 tournament. There should be no questions about this team’s desire to win here.
Their opponent in the championship is NC State, a team they beat by an average of 11 points across their two regular-season meetings. The Wolfpack have won four games in four days on their way to this ACC championship game, and their latest win came over Virginia in overtime. That game didn’t finish until midnight, and NC State now has to turn around less than 24 hours later to prepare for their in-state rival.
UNC’s win over Pitt on Friday was a grind, but they should still be far fresher here. The Tar Heels beat Florida State on Thursday in their first tournament game in a rout, and R.J. Davis was the only player who hit the 30-minute mark. Davis should be able to take advantage of tired legs and late rotations for a Wolfpack defense that already ranks 197th in open 3 rate allowed per ShotQuality.
Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram should also have a ton of success against an NC State defense ranked in the 45th percentile for defending post-ups and the 31st percentile for defending shots at the rim, per Synergy. He leads a Heels offense ranked in the 81st percentile in post-up efficiency.
The NC State story is fun, and everyone loves a Cinderella team. Still, if Virginia had just fouled up 3 late and not allowed Michael O’Connell to attempt a shot at the buzzer, we wouldn’t even be talking about this rivalry game taking place. I believe the clock strikes midnight on the Wolf Pack here as UNC earns a decisive championship win.
College Basketball Pick & Prediction Today: North Carolina -8.5 (Play to -10)
WAC: UT Arlington-Grand Canyon College Basketball Pick & Prediction
Late Thursday night, UT Arlington earned a three-point win over Tarleton State as Brandyn Talbot hit a game-winning 3-pointer with 3.3 seconds remaining. It was an exhilarating back-and-forth contest and yet another elite offensive showing for the Mavericks. Since February 1st, UT Arlington ranks 51st in adjusted offensive efficiency and is the fourth-most improved offense in the country over that span, per BartTorvik.
That’s no coincidence. Leading scorer Phillip Russell missed time at the beginning of the season, initially being denied eligibility and then dealing with injuries. However, Russell has his footing now, and he is averaging 18 points and 5.5 assists over his last seven games. Junior Shemar Wilson was also a hero against Tarleton and finished with a season-high 29 points.
Using season-long metrics to analyze this team is not entirely worthwhile due to Russell’s early-season woes, but the bones of first-year coach K.T. Turner’s offense have been in place all year. The Mavericks rank in the top 60 in shot selection, rim & 3-pointer rate and open 3-pointer rate, per ShotQuality, all indicators of a team generating consistent high-quality offense.
For the season, Grand Canyon’s defense ranks 81st in adjusted efficiency. However, the Antelopes have recently seen some slippage on that end of the floor, ranking just 130th since the beginning of February. They’re 306th in defensive rebounding in that span, while Arlington ranks 56th in offensive rebounding, so expect second-chance points for the Mavericks.
The Antelopes have been the class of this conference all season, but the Mavericks outpace them in T-Rank over the past month and a half, and I believe this spread is overinflated. UT Arlington is poised to give Grand Canyon a great fight on Saturday night, and I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset.
College Basketball Pick & Prediction Today: UT Arlington +6.5 (Play to +4.5)
