The ACC Tournament tips off on Tuesday, March 12, at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. North Carolina has launched sports betting, which means Duke and UNC fans can place bets on their favorite team from their home state. Keep reading as we dive into the ACC Tournament to make predictions and seek out the best value on the board. It is time for our ACC Tournament preview, in which we’ll break down the odds, make our predictions and pick the best ACC Tournament bets. Make sure to check out our other college basketball articles and our college basketball betting tools.
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ACC Tournament Preview: Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
ACC Tournament Odds
The first round of the ACC Tournament tips off on Tuesday, and games take place throughout the week leading up to the championship game on Saturday. The current odds are as follows via DraftKings as of Tuesday, March 12:
North Carolina: +150
Duke: +160
Clemson: +850
Wake Forest: +900
Pittsburgh: +1200
Virginia: +1900
Virginia Tech: +3000
Syracuse: +6500
NC State: +10000
Florida State: +10000
Miami FL: +15000
Notre Dame: +30000
Boston College: +30000
Louisville: +50000
Georgia Tech: +50000
The Favorites – North Carolina and Duke
Following stellar regular season campaigns that have landed them in the AP Top 25, No. 4 North Carolina and No. 11 Duke are the favorites to win this year’s ACC Tournament. Let’s break down the candidacy of each of those blue blood programs.
ACC Tournament Prediction – North Carolina +150
The Tar Heels’ path will start with the winner of the 8-9 game between Virginia Tech and Florida State. The Hokies will be favored to advance from that game, and KenPom currently makes the spread Virginia Tech -3. UNC beat Virginia Tech 96-81 earlier this season in a game that forward Armando Bacot dominated, finishing with 25 points and 12 rebounds. That was with Hokies center Lynn Kidd starting, and his status is in question for the tournament as he missed the team’s regular-season finale with an injury.
North Carolina is the 6th-most experienced team in the country per KenPom, and their starters have been in plenty of big games. The Tar Heels also own one of the most impressive wins in the country with their recent road win over a highly motivated Duke team in a revenge spot. One potential concern is a lack of depth – UNC ranks 336th in bench minutes – but with R.J. Davis and Bacot capable of taking over games, there’s plenty to love about these Heels. Still, I’d need 2-1 odds or better for a bet on UNC to be worthwhile.
Duke +160: The Blue Devils will undoubtedly come into this tournament with a chip on their shoulder after losing the season series to their rival UNC. The Blue Devils boast plenty of scoring talent, and they rank 7th in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. Kyle Filipowski is the leading scorer with 16.7 points per game, but five different players average double-digit points, including standout freshman Jared McCain who scored 19 points on 50% shooting against UNC over the weekend.
Duke has stormed through conference play with a 15-5 record, and ten of those 15 wins have come by double digits. Whoever comes out of the group of NC State, Louisville, and Syracuse will likely be easy pickings in the second round, as Duke beat up all three teams in the regular season. The first real pitfall could come against Clemson, who I’ll talk about in a moment as one of my favorite teams in this field. Similar to UNC, I’d need at least 2-1 odds to bet on the Blue Devils.
Best ACC Tournament Bet – Value Pick
ACC Tournament Prediction – Clemson +850:
My favorite value on the board in this tournament is the Tigers at +850, as they possess a ton of the characteristics that I love in these environments. Clemson has tons of experience, ranking 27th in that category per KenPom, and they rank 62nd in continuity – this group has been together for a long time. Clemson also isn’t three-point reliant, as they have two excellent interior scorers in PJ Hall and Ian Schieffelin. However, Joseph Girard III has tons of big-game experience and can take over with his three-point shooting.
The Clemson defense ranks 55th in adjusted efficiency since the beginning of February, and they limit shots at the rim and from 3-point range. The Tigers rank 5th in near-proximity FG% allowed and 17th in second-chance conversion rate allowed per Haslametrics. They also rank 25th in open 3-point rate allowed per ShotQuality, making the lives of opposing shooters difficult on the perimeter.
I don’t expect the winner of the Boston College-Miami matchup to give the Tigers too many issues. Miami has the talent for a run but I’m not expecting it with their total lack of continuity and momentum. From there, the Tigers would face a Virginia team with one of the most disgusting offenses to watch in the country – they rank 13th out of 15 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference play.
Most importantly, Clemson has proven its worth against the top two teams in this conference. The Tigers lost by just one point on a controversial late foul call at Cameron Indoor earlier this season, so I like their chances in a potential semi-final game against Duke. They also won in Chapel Hill earlier this season, giving them a solid chance to pull off the upset over North Carolina in a potential championship game. I’m taking Clemson all day at 8-1 odds or better.
Ultra ACC Tournament Pick – Long Shot
A CC Tournament Prediction – Notre Dame +30000
If you’re looking for a super long shot to throw some pizza money on, my vote would be for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish would need to win five games in five days to get the job done here, which is incredibly unlikely for any team. However, I’ve been impressed with Micah Shrewsberry’s team over the latter part of the year.
The Irish have a very young group, ranking 357th in overall experience per KenPom, but Shrewsberry has ironed them into an elite defensive outfit, ranking 23rd in adjusted efficiency on that end since the start of conference play. Fueled by that elite defense, the Irish have been one of the nation’s most improved teams this season, as you can see in the graphic on the right highlighting their rise in T-Rank.
Since February 10, the Irish are 5-3 straight up and 6-2 ATS in a stretch that has included impressive home wins over Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Clemson, three teams seeded ahead of them. Per the Torvik split/difference tool, they’ve been the most improved team in the conference and the 26th-most improved team in the nation over that span.
In last year’s Big Ten Tournament, Shrewsberry’s No. 10-seeded Penn State team won three straight games against higher-seeded teams on their way to the championship game, where they lost by 2 to Purdue. An opening-round win over Georgia Tech is very doable, and they’ve already beaten Wake Forest this season. Getting past UNC would be a tall order as the Tar Heels beat the Irish 84-51 last week, but Shrewsberry has tournament voodoo and the Irish have played inspired basketball as of late. At 30-1 odds, the Irish are worth a couch change sprinkle.
Nonetheless, hopefully our ACC Tournament preview, predictions, picks, bets and more post proved useful.
