The College World Series is right around the corner, but we’ve got some crucial series scheduled this weekend. None stand out more than the No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies’ series versus the No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks, which we’ll focus on here. Without further ado, let’s get into my college baseball Texas A&M-Arkansas picks and predictions for today, Thursday, May 16, using the college baseball odds at college baseball power rankings.
College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today: Thursday, May 16
College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today: Texas A&M-Arkansas | May 16
Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M Aggies
ARK: -113 | TAMU: -113
Game Time: 7:00 pm. ET
Where: College Station, Texas
Odds via FanDuel
The No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies will host the No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks in what might be the biggest college baseball game of the year. It’s superstar LHP Hagen Smith (1.65 ERA) on the bump for Arkansas, and the hogs haven’t lost a game he has started all year. A&M will go with LHP Ryan Prager (2.71 ERA).
I wrote about my love for A&M and my skepticism of Arkansas in our most recent College World Series power rankings, but I’ll break it down further here. The Aggies are a balanced team, as they rank fourth by OPS (1.009) and eighth by ERA (4.00). The Hogs are not balanced — they may rank second by ERA (3.44), but their offense ranks 140th by OPS (.833).
Of course, the Hogs are a pick’em on the road because of their star starting pitcher. What Smith has done this season is nothing short of incredible: he leads the NCAA in ERA (1.65) and ranks third in strikeouts (136), averaging 17.2 K/9. His dominant play has helped the Hogs win every series opener this year.
But when we dive deeper into Arkansas’ performance in series-opening games, their fatal flaw becomes apparently. Arkansas has won four openers by a single run. The team has also won four openers by just two. Their offense hasn’t been good enough to blow anybody out, which shouldn’t be that hard with Smith holding opposing offenses to 1.77 runs per nine.
To illustrate Arkansas’ offensive flaws, let’s look at the Hogs’ batting order. The first five bats of Arkansas’ most recent order against a LHP were Peyton Holt (.889 OPS), Peyton Stovall (.966), Jared Sprague-Lott (.979), Wehiwa Aloy (.853), Ben McLaughlin (.925). None of those guys have an OPS above A&M’s team OPS of 1.009.
In contrast, the Aggies has an elite order. The first five in their most recent game against a LHP were Graham Grahovac (1.052), Jace LaViolette (1.280), Braden Montgomery (1.254), Jackson Appel (1.016) and Hayden Schott (.912). All but Grahovac are either LHHs or SHs.
Of those five batsmen, Smith has only seen LaViolette before. Smith came out of the bullpen and pitched four scoreless innings, striking out LaViolette with two outs and a runner on third in a tie game. That was LaViolette’s freshman season, and his OPS has improved from 1.047 to 1.280. His strikeout rate has also decreased from 33.6% to 31.5% as well.
With a better LaViolette and a much better A&M starting lineup, I’m excited about getting the Aggies as a pick’em at home. They’ll probably be favored by a wider margin for their next two games, so buy low while you can.
College Baseball Pick Today for Arkansas-Texas A&M: Texas A&M ML -113 at FanDuel
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