It’s Friday, which means it’s time to sit back and watch the best pitchers in college baseball flash their stuff. Texas-LSU stands out as the slate’s marquee matchup, largely due to pitching quality, but there’s also value to discuss in the Iowa-Ole Miss game. I’ve also added an extra pick exclusive available on 2024 college baseball season preview.
College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today: March 1
College Baseball Odds, Pick & Prediction Today
LSU Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns
LSU: +170 | TEX: -220
Game Time: 8 pm. ET
Where: Houston
Odds via DraftKings
The LSU Tigers and Texas Longhorns will do battle late tonight in Houston. They’ll play from Minute Maid Park, which, despite its short right field, plays far more like a pitcher’s park than a batter’s park. That points to oodles of value on the under with two elite starting pitchers on the mound.
RHP Lebarron Johnson Jr. (1.38 ERA) is on the mound for Texas while Luke Holman (0.00 ERA) is on the mound for LSU. Johnson’s elite ERA isn’t far off from what he recorded last season (2.92 ERA), and his 0.85 WHIP is excellent. Holman’s unblemished ERA stands through 12.1 innings pitched and pairs with 13.1 K/9 and 0.49 WHIP. Holman recorded a 3.67 ERA just last year.
Overall, these teams have allowed a cumulative 6.8 runs per nine innings this year. LSU has mostly played lower-quality opponents like Northern Illinois (2x), Central Arkansas (2x), VMI (2x) and the like, which is a concern. The same is true for Texas, as the Longhorns have played San Diego (3x) and Cal Poly (3x) for their weekend series.
Still, with two of college baseball’s best pitchers on the bump in a pitcher-friendly MLB park, I’m buying the under nine runs for odds of -115 at DraftKings. With both offenses facing a massive jump in pitching quality, tonight’s game could be a wake-up call.
College Baseball Pick Today: Texas/LSU Under 9 -115 at DraftKings
Iowa Hawkeyes at Ole Miss Rebels
IOWA: -115 | MISS: -115
Game Time: 7:30 pm. ET
Where: Oxford, Miss.
Odds via DraftKings
The Iowa Hawkeyes and Ole Miss Rebels have both started the season disappointingly. The Rebs look like shells of their former selves, stumbling to a 6-4 record with losses Hawaii, Arkansas State and High Point. The 4-4 Hawkeyes just played a terrible neutral-site series in Jacksonville, losing to Wichita State, Virginia and Auburn.
The pitching matchup should favor the under. Iowa will start RHP Brody Brecht (1.78 ERA), who was similarly dominant last year (3.74 ERA) and is seen as a likely top-10 pick. Brecht has a jaw-dropping 19.2 K/9 thus far this season, which likely isn’t sustainable, but he did record a 12.7 K/9 last year. Ole Miss will start LHP Gunnar Dennis (3.12 ERA), a transfer making his first Friday start for the Rebs.
The bats have been hot and cold for these teams to start the year. Ole Miss opened the season by failing to plate five runs or more over their first six contests. They’re now averaging 8.1 runs per game this season, but that required them to average 18.3 over the last four games. Look for their bats to cool off against an elite starter.
Iowa’s bats started the year acceptably, averaging 8.5 runs per game over the first four contests as the Hawkeyes opened to a 3-1 record. Things got worse against better competition in Jacksonville, as the Hawkeyes averaged just 6.7 runs per game. I am skeptical of both these offenses, especially with both beating their OPS from last year by a solid margin despite not getting much better in the batter’s box. I bought the under 11.5 for odds of -115 at Caesars.
College Baseball Pick Today: Iowa/Ole Miss Under 11.5 -115 at Caesars
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