The MLB may have returned last week with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, but today is Opening Day for the rest of the MLB — as long as the weather agrees! Let’s fire up a pick and prediction for Thursday’s Yankees-Astros game that you can tune into via ESPN+. The Yankees-Astros betting odds suggest Houston should come away with this one — so what’s our pick? Keep reading to find out. If you’re hungry for more action, our guide to MLB player prop betting as well!
Yankees-Astros Odds, Pick & Prediction for Thursday
Yankees-Astros Odds
Odds via DraftKings
NYY: +130 | HOU: -155
NYY +1.5: -155 | HOU -1.5: +130
Over 8.5: -115 | Under 8.5: -115
Game Time: 4 p.m. ET
Yankees-Astros Pick & Betting Prediction
The Houston Astros will open their season against the New York Yankees on Thursday, and I think the books have set the juice for the over just a squeeze too low. New York will start LHP Nestor Cortes while Houston will start LHP Framber Valdez, neither of whom looked good in spring training, and both of whom are overrated relative to their expected production.
Cortes and Valdez struggled this spring, with Cortes recording a 7.71 ERA and 1.929 WHIP over 14 innings pitched. Valdez was similarly bad, also recording a 7.71 ERA with a 1.929 WHIP but over only 9.1 innings pitched. Both pitchers fared poorly in Statcast metrics last season: Valdez’s 4.33 xERA ranked in only the 43rd percentile. Cortes’ 3.66 xERA ranked solidly in the 72nd percentile, but he pitched only 63.1 innings all year. He ranked in only the 28th percentile for pitching run value.
Despite my reservations about both teams’ starting pitchers, they both had strong bullpens last year. Houston ranked sixth in bullpen ERA (3.56) while New York led the MLB (3.34) in the metric. However, this year’s Yankees have more questions than usual in the bullpen, as the unit ranks just 19th, per Fangraphs. The Astros rank a far more encouraging fifth.
Meanwhile, both offenses are loaded with firepower. The Yankees ranked 13th in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) in 2023 (.323) but will certainly improve with a healthy Aaron Judge (.428 xwOBA) and Juan Soto (.408) in the mix, both of whom were 98th percentile or better in the metric. The Astros ranked fourth (.333) and will continue to get major production from Yordan Alvarez (.415) and Kyle Tucker (.386), both of whom were 95th percentile or better.
With two star-studded offenses lining up against starting pitchers who struggled in spring training, it’s easy to get excited about the over. However, instead of playing the full game over, I’m sticking to the first five — I would prefer not to get cooked by an excellent relief performance. But what book is offering the best number?
It’s still early in the season, so don’t get too crazy with your bet sizing. March and April are good months for learning lessons that can help us later in the year, so let’s not burn through too much bankroll. Let’s bet the first five innings over 4.5 at odds of -115 for a half-unit at DraftKings.
Yankees-Astros Pick & Prediction: First Five Over 4.5 -115 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more MLB predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
