We hit both legs of our Sunday Mavericks-Timberwolves parlay — in part because Dereck Lively II took a knee to the dome, so I’m not exactly taking victory laps. Still, one guy in particular in this series keeps giving us winning bets (thanks, Mike Conley), and we’re not about to stop targeting him as we build a Parlay Builder.
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Timberwolves-Mavericks Parlay: BetMGM SGP With Mike Conley
Leg #1: Mike Conley Under 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
This is the man in question who, regardless of how our parlays on the whole have turned out, has continually been at least one of the winning bets. We have mostly attacked Conley’s assists the last few games since those have been the plusest of +EV; going with his points + rebounds + assists is not exactly deviating from that.
It is making it a little trickier for us, but in turn we get some favorable odds and the best expected value for a prop in this game.
Conley is now on a five-game dip in his assists, recorded five or fewer each time. In the past that would theoretically be his best shot at beating a PRA line. For now, though, it’s his scoring and rebounding.
That brings us to this point: Conley has eclipsed 20.5 PRA in four of the last five games and in all but three postseason games total. All three unders came in his three playoff games where he scored in the single digits.
But OddsShopper is favoring an Anthony Edwards-centric game from Minnesota, as the model gives Edwards a 53% chance of beating his 26.5 points line. Meanwhile, Conley’s rebound line is just 2.5, and his 5.5 assists line has a 55% chance of staying under
This all adds up to Conley having a 54% chance of falling shy of 20.5 PRA according to our BetMGM odds, that makes the Conley under +EV by a game-high 6.2%.
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Leg #2: Jaden Hardy Under 0.5 3-Pointers
One of the great viral clips of unmitigated Rudy Gobert bashing from Dallas this series came when Hardy had the ball in isolation against Gobert. He looked to Luka Doncic to give him the ball and Doncic waved him off, essentially telling Hardy he could take the reigning Defensive Player of the Year one-on-one. Hardy did, and he cooked Gobert enough to draw a foul.
What does that have to do with Hardy’s 3-point prop? Well, it indicates that Doncic and the Mavericks genuinely have confidence in Hardy to take shots when he gets in. As a result, Hardy’s confidence should be at an all-time high.
That confidence has resulted in three games this whole postseason where he made a 3-pointer. Instead, when Hardy feels inclined to shoot in his 10-ish minutes of action per game, he has preferred to attack or hit mid-range shots.
Since getting his postseason playing time increased (the last five games), Hardy has attempts no more than three 3’s and made one twice. These include games of five to seven shot attempts as well.
Hardy hit a 3 in well over half his games in the regular season (45 of 73), but a lot of those came in games where he played 14 minutes or more. Barring a blowout, he’ll probably hover in the 10-minute range, and possibly less if Minnesota performs to its defensive capabilities in a way it has not this series.
One 3 losing us an entire parlay is not the most comfortable. That said, our NBA betting model likes the chances of this under even more than those of the Conley bet, giving it a 56% chance of winning. That brings our total Wolves-Mavs parlay to 30% expected win rate.
Plus, there is a solid gap between the -120 BetMGM odds and the -127 True Odds, giving us a 2.5% +EV bet on its own and a solid 8.52% +EV parlay.
Timberwolves-Mavericks Parlay Today: +257 at BetMGM
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