Post-New Year’s Day basketball is a perpetual crapshoot of figuring out who is playing and who is sitting on any given night. That sure makes our Portfolio EV for Tuesday, Jan. 7.
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NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
Jaylen Brown Lower Than 23.5 Points
On the surface, everything sets up well for Brown tonight: The Celtics get a pace up in the Nuggets, the game has one of the highest totals of the night, and Brown projects for around 36 minutes according to Stokastic’s NBA Advanced Stat Projections. So why does lower than 23.5 points have a slate-high 58% expected win rate?
Well, like the Celtics as a whole, Brown has been up and down over the last month and change, falling short of that projection in eight of 14 games since the beginning of December. Part of the problem is him shooting only 70% from the free-throw line and 31% from deep, so though the Nuggets are a mediocre defensive team (12th-worst defensive rating), we are playing the lack of efficiency here.
Walker Kessler Lower Than 11.5 Points
Take what we said about Browns’ game environment and apply it to Kessler here. This Hawks-Jazz matchup has the actual highest total of the night, and given Utah’s mile-long injury report, a Kessler scoring uptick makes some sense, no?
Yes, it does make sense, but the NBA Advanced Stat Projections are treating Lauri Markkanen as in and giving him over 21 points tonight. If he ends up sitting, then sure, Kessler’s projection will climb. For now, though, we have him at 11.4 points for a 56% chance of staying under 11.5.
Yves Missi Lower Than 10.5 Points
Again, we’re coming in early on an injury-heavy situation. New Orleans may or may not be without Zion Williamson and/or Dejounte Murray tonight, but the projections have them both in. Now, Williamson and Missi do overlap a little bit in of role on the court, though Williamson only projects for 23 minutes, so his absence will not so drastically alter Missi’s points projection.
Right now we have Missi at 10.1 points and a 56% expected win rate on lower than 10.5 points. This gives the whole Underdog entry a strong 18% chance of winning as a 6x Standard play, and the 9% +EV rating is about as good as you’ll see for an NBA Underdog entry.
