We saw the return of Klay Thompson to Chase Center and the season debut of Joel Embiid. The latter came back from injury, but it was another injury in the 76ers-Knicks game that helped us cash a ticket. Jalen Brunson’s sprained ankle limited his performance, but we take any means to a victory; it’s also a reminder why injury will never burn under bets. Wednesday’s slate features 11 more games, including the undefeated Cavaliers looking for their 13th straight win, so let’s get into the best NBA player props and picks today!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Wednesday, Nov. 13
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
We have to that each night is a step in the direction of a longer play. Lotto winners to grinders know the season is a long one, full of variance and storms to weather. The good and bad come, it’s just about how you react. Last night wasn’t a great night for me overall, but it was one of the first red nights in the NBA for a bit, and nothing will change with my process.
It’s why I remain up over 45 units on the year @shanderbets and my journey to 100 units. It’s why I won’t move away from using Portfolio EV to gain a massive edge against the market. The worst thing anyone can do after a bad night is change what got them there. That’s what makes our tools so valuable; they don’t change their process no matter how they performed the night before.
Last night we found the Brunson prop where only one book was offering plus money, and everyone else was charging a fee. This is always going to be an indicator that something is off, and we want to exploit that edge. The same value appears on tonight’s slate with Corey Kispert scoring less than 12 points against the Spurs.
There are a few reasons someone may rush to the window to slam the other side; the game is between two bad teams that should get up plenty of shots, and Kispert has some volume that could work in his favor. None of that matters. The reality is a million different things could happen — like an ankle sprain — to result in this play staying under.
We are here to take advantage of the best price, regardless of its side. That happens to be the under 11.5 points as we bet it at +100 on BetMGM. No other book is offering an even (or better) return. In fact, even books hovering around the -113 True Odds are just barely beating for minimal edge.
I can’t bet at Hard Rock, but I can at BetMGM. By using Portfolio EV, I was able to find an even-money return on Kispert despite most books at -110 or worse. If you are shopping prices on a car, clothes or your kid’s cereal — why aren’t you shopping your bets?
We added two more plays, including Kispert’s teammate Alexandre Sarr staying under 6.5 rebounds. At -105, we just beat the true odds of what this ticket should be, and the rest of the books are offering an even worse price. Our final play is staying under 13.5 points + rebounds + assists for Trey Lyles. These smaller markets are typically easier to beat, especially combining a player with fewer expected minutes.
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
