Let’s hit the best NBA player prop picks today, including a look at Moses Moody and another play we should all be interested in.
We are jammed tonight with none games across the NBA slate. Each game provides a ton of opportunities to beat the market with Portfolio EV, with even more evidence below of how well it works! Since there are hundreds of player props across multiple games, you simply don’t have the time to break it all down – that’s why pEV is so crucial in finding profitable plays. I found a handful of plays with strong edges so buckle up and let’s make some money!
Portfolio EV is the simplest way to grow your bankroll and secure long-term profits. Access more Portfolio Betting page to begin!
Nonetheless, let’s get to Moses Moody fun!
NBA Player Prop Picks Today: Wednesday, Jan. 22
Last season, we went +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today – Moses Moody Mania!
If you want further proof that our tools work, look at this defeat of a sports book. I beat up DraftKings with our tools for north of 224 units in 2024, followed by another strong month (not even over) of 39.3 units in January. DraftKings will no longer allow me to bet on NBA Player Props – waiving the white flag. I will talk a little more this week about how to get around limits, but for now, take this as a massive victory for Portfolio EV. As you see, this was far from a loss for me, as my still finished up 263u across 13 months.
How did I do it? Easy. Using a +EV approach through a market based top down betting system. We have a detailed algorithm that does the work for you, for me, too. So, now that you know and have seen how well the tools work, let’s put them to use.
Our top play is Moses Moody under 11.5 points at -115 on FanDuel. The number beats the true odds of -124 and every other book in the market. It’s a standard first step we need in determining. If your bet can’t beat the market price then it’s going to lose over time – that simple.
Not only does the -115 price on Moody defeat the actual retail price, it’s far better than the -140 or worse available. Some books have even moved to an under 10.5 points, removing a full point from the prop. Why that error or margin in the market exists is irrelevant, but exploiting it is the key to long term profit.
Ty Jerome under 9.5 points at -122 on FanDuel also follows this approach. We see a strong effort by other books to rip us off with terrible lines. At least with the -122 on FanDuel, we know we are getting a better price than -130 – or what this bet should be fairly priced. You can apply whatever reasoning you like when it comes to these props, but the reality is the +EV approach here (specific to the market) doesn’t require any extra thought.
We have a third play that’s James Harden staying under 22.5 points at Fliff. We have plays that beat all books, from DraftKings to social books like Fliff and Rebet. We even have codes to sign up here. I love this play with Harden because we get insane value that nets us an 8% edge. We typically look for bets with a 2% edge or higher, so seeing something in this range means we get a fantastic break on the price.
There are the three plays, all following the same approach and ultimately putting us on a path to profit. It’s nice and sometimes reassuring to read what a player has done in 10 of his last 20 games, or over his last 10 games vs (insert team) but that doesn’t matter. Beating the market is the only way to ensure a long term profit.
That’s also why we have something called HROI (historical return of investment). The Harden prop has a 6.5% HROI. Which simply means that points props on Fliff – over or under – are returning a 6.5% ROI this year. That’s pretty damn good, and not bad to have at our disposal.
Think about how easy betting on the NBA has become and why books like DraftKings came down on me with limits. Would they do that if I was pouring money into my each week? You know the answer.
As always, hit me up on X with any questions — my DMs are always open!
