It’s been a few days since we’ve hit you with the top NBA expert picks of the night. We’ve had a busy Sunday and Monday night of football, followed by a night off in the Association. With everything back to normal, the work week picks up with 12 games on tap. That leaves us with a ton of +EV NBA player prop opportunities, each with their own path to profit. We will once again rely on the Portfolio EV to guide us with the top 3 plays currently on the site. We may even have a rare over sighting on the board!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Wednesday, Nov. 6
Last season, we went unlock our picks!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
The variance for the month of November has been something else, but it’s still netting a profit. If you are following my Road to 100-plus NBA units on Twitter, then you saw a massive pull on Monday night — ultimately gaining 11 units on the slate. This is a volume play over time, as simple as that. You are in this for the longer play rather than an overnight success; unless you happen to have a huge night and pull out your entire bankroll — fine, spend it on your kids. Otherwise, we know the highs and lows will happen; it’s just about the overall process that slows the bleeding while increasing the winning nights.
How do we know this? The data. It’s why I’m up over 30 units on the year using Portfolio EV. It’s why we all continue to show you how we use it, not just that we use it. The best part about this tool is it works; a market-based approach nets profit over time. The second-best element is how fast you can get down a ton of bets. Check out our Mass Entry tool and see how you can get 20 to 40 bets in 20 to 40 seconds.
Mass Entry tool.
You may notice something different with tonight’s top player props, primarily an over play. Yes, we do those at OddsShopper — it’s just we see mostly unders as a primary function of how the market is bet. More people bet overs, which opens more value on the unders.
That doesn’t mean the entire public is out here fading Chris Paul’s 3-point shot. It could be a couple of factors, but we know that FanDuel is offering a bad line — for them, not for us — at +115 for the over. Paul getting two makes from 3 should be +103 according to the true odds, yet we are getting a return 12 points better.
Look at Derrick White. It’s the same principle as we fade his efforts, at least staying below four makes from 3, at an incredible price. We have a 7.3% EV edge against the market and books. We are getting a +105 return on a bet that is correctly priced at -110. No other book is offering anything better than +100, yet we found one at +105.
Maybe you have the time to open up each app, check prices, take out the vig, then compare them to Pinnacle and a few other sharp books — I certainly do not. These tools were designed to save you money and show you with simple optics how you are going to profit. From White to Jalen Williams to Paul, the means may change, but we end up in the same spot.
Williams’ price for staying under two made 3’s is 13 points better on DraftKings than the true odds. It’s even better compared to other books in the market. Stop overpaying for plays simply because you are only on one or two apps; you are leaving money on the table.
Follow me on X @shanderbets as we continue on our journey to 100-plus units betting the NBA off Portfolio EV.
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
