The night in the NBA is headlined by a massive return to action. Whether it’s just the sheer size of Joel Embiid or the dire need of his services, tonight’s debut comes with a little extra spice. Of course, that’s not the only thing going on in the league, as Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry reunite with the Mavericks taking on the Warriors. There are six more games across the schedule, so that allows some opportunities to beat the market and profit. Here are your top 3 NBA player props fresh off Portfolio EV.
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Tuesday, Nov. 12
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
It’s nearly halfway through the month of November, and I’m halfway to my goal for 100 units. The NBA has been extra kind this year, and I’m publicly tracking this journey Mass Entry Tool, or meticulously going through each +EV bet with a digital comb — the tools ensure you reach the same end with multiple means.
Looking at tonight’s action, there are a couple of spots to attack, including a big name in that Knicks-76ers game. That’s the fun part for me, not always knowing where the +EV tool will take me — from smaller market to lesser-known player. But with the NBA being so star driven, we see so many chances to fade bigger names on the floor. Those breaks in the market that create +EV opportunities are key in sustaining long-term profit. It’s why I’m up nearly 50 units on the young season.
OK, so Joel Embiid is making his season debut after a failed stint at the Olympics, a lingering injury and a three-game suspension for shoving a reporter — fun times in Philadelphia, I can assure you. While the world focuses on how many minutes Embiid will play, we see an opportunity to fade another star, specifically Jalen Brunson.
This is not the revenge game for Philadelphia it’s being made out to be, nor are the 76ers fully healthy. Brunson and the Knicks have already been on the grind and are feeling the effects of it. Maybe it’s public money tagging overs, maybe it’s parlay money — it doesn’t matter as we get a break.
Brunson to stay under 25.5 points is even money at BetMGM. The true odds for this ticket sit at -110. That’s a pretty hefty haul for placing a bet, knowing we get a 5% EV edge. No other book is offering that bet at the same or better price as BetMGM.
So why would you bet it anywhere other than BetMGM? The only viable answer would be you simply do not live in a state where the book exists because, if you have BetMGM, see this and choose to bet it at DraftKings, you will lose over time. It’s a guarantee.
We have two other plays that follow the same path to profit. R.J. Barrett has a strong return at +135 on DraftKings to stay under 1.5 3-Pointers. The true price on the market should be +123, and we know most books would rather charge extra than be behind that number.
The best bet on the board is John Collins staying under 7.5 rebounds against the Suns. We get it at +108 on FanDuel compared to the -104 true odds — another example of getting plus money while the rest of the books ask you to pay a fee.
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
