One thing is for certain, mostly anyone who used the Portfolio EV approach last night turned a profit. Before we look at why these tools continue to pump out wins — and how you can use them with parlays — let’s look at the slate tonight. We have an appetizing eight-gamer that features the Rockets and Grizzlies battling in Memphis, down to the Hornets visiting LeBron James and the Lakers. Here are our top NBA player prop picks of the night!
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Thursday, Jan. 9
Last season, we went +EV betting results here!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
The road to 100 units is back, but this time I’m only working parlays. You can follow my second journey here, as we didn’t even need 60 days to complete the first 100. There are multiple people both in and outside OddsShopper showing you how easy these tools are to use. Our guy CeeGee is using the tools every day and recapping his results — I lose track of how often he’s a top 5% bettor each night.
Let’s look at what we have available tonight while sticking to our parameters and process. Right away you see three plays, all of them unders. The nature of beating the market from a top-down approach will yield far more unders than overs, as the majority of bettors love overs and alt plays.
We gain a 6.5% EV edge by taking Donovan Mitchell to finish with less than 4.5 assists. There are a few important numbers to look at — none of them are game logs or what he’s done over the past five games. The biggest trap you can fall into while using Portfolio EV is adding your own analysis.
The market doesn’t care what Mitchell has done over his last five or 10 games; it certainly doesn’t care if the Raptors are giving up the most assists to shooting guards. The only thing that matters is the price of our ticket is better than the true odds of the bet. We can see clearly that it is.
The true odds of this bet are +110 versus what we get back, a +124 return at DraftKings. That factors into the EV edge, as does betting into a market that’s historically led to a profit. We don’t need any script since we already know assists on Portfolio EV are +EV. Look at historical return on investment (HROI) and we see a 7.7% ROI.
That means any assists prop that comes off Portfolio EV is part of that HROI. While rebounds might have less value, they are still profitable with a 2.5% HROI. We even have a bankroll builder option that can suggest the proper amount to wager on each play — after you input your overall bankroll.
Not every book is behind the true odds, but only one book will return the best price. Look at the second graphic and you can see while three other books are beating the +110 — DraftKings still has the best return. Other books like BetMGM are giving you less than the true value. Even worse, books like Hard Rock are charging you -105 to place the same wager.
Let’s recap. Find the best price and bet into a market that’s returning profit. Why would anyone pay -110 for a bet when they can get it 34 points better at another book? You wouldn’t do that with your car, sneakers, or kid’s cereal — don’t do it with your bets!
