Last night was something else. We got walloped across the board while watching a slim cover by the Nuggets, while both the Thunder and Cavs remain undefeated. Saturday’s action promises ten games on the slate as we inch deeper into the start of the season. OKC is right back at it on the road in LA, as are the Cavs in Milwaukee. Utah is the lone winless team on the docket as they take on the Nuggets in Denver. We trust the process as it has yielded strong gains of now, as we bring you the top NBA plays from Portfolio EV.
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Saturday, November 2
Last season, we went unlock our picks!
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Last night was not the best overall, hard to ignore when we are so transparent about results. But that’s just it. We’ve already established through repeated history that the tools work. We’ve also maintained this is a volume and variance game, meaning there will be big nights – both ways. This isn’t a get rich quick scheme, rather a get rich over time strategy. It’s simply impossible to predict how the road goes on the way to profit, knowing there will be down nights in the NBA, followed by many up nights.
The variance is unavoidable but the volume helps. When using Portfolio EV, we recommend you load up on our +EV NBA plays, as there will be plenty across most nights. It’s the easiest way to weather a storm, no matter if it’s a quick sprinkle or hurricane – you are prepared. Anyone using the tools from day one of the NBA is still up, rather handsomely, despite most likely taking a hit. If you see anyone who did profit off Friday’s action, I’m betting they had nearly 100 plays. Rightfully, so.
Mass Entry tool.
Alperen Sengun is our first target with our trio of plays. The Rockets big man faces a visiting Warriors squad and sits on a line of 10.5 rebounds. Right away you should notice the most important number on the board, then how it gets there. Under 10.5 Rebounds has a 7% EV edge. These are just insane smash spots due to the leverage against the market.
BetRivers is hanging a bad line. What else could it be? They offer this play at +102 when the true odds sit at -113. Books like DraftKings, BetMGM, and Fliff are offering this at -115 or worse. Even Caesars sits at -111 – narrowly beating this price. If the average price per gallon of regular gas is $4, and you see a station offering it at $3.50 and $2 – nobody in their right mind would stop at the $3.50 station. The same logic applies here.
We jump on this play because it’s plus money – the only one offering us this deal – on a play 15 points worse to the market value. He’s destroyed this line in all but one of his games, and comes in with a day of rest. That’s most likely causing people to slam the over, leaving this value on the other side. The more people drive to overs, be it singles or parlays, the better chance we find errors with unders.
Much like with Damian Lillard’s Under 35.5 PRA, and Nikola Jovic staying below 5.5 rebounds, there are multiple ways in which Sengun can struggle his way to nine or ten boards. We aren’t here to predict the how, just the end. Beating market value gives us a massive edge in doing just that.
Lillard is on a sinking ship led by a clueless captain in Doc Rivers. The Bucks are already a disappointment this early, and face an incredibly talented Cavs team on both sides of the floor. Locking up Lillard doesn’t seem too far fetched, even if it’s two of three stat categories. Let’s cash all three!
Follow me on X @shanderbets as we continue on our journey to 100-plus units betting the NBA off Portfolio EV.
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
