Anyone paying attention and following with our process made some coin last night. We return with a mini five game slate starting with a matinee in Charlotte. It’ll be our focus for our NBA player prop picks and predictions today.
None of the five games feature two teams with winning records, including the first game featuring the Bucks and Hornets – each with four wins. As we proved on Thursday, you don’t need a bunch of games to find great value in the market. Thanks to Portfolio EV, we’ve found some solid angles to attack. Here are your top three NBA player props for Saturday, November 16th.
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Saturday, Nov. 16
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Last night was an absolute hammer. I cleared more than 10 units in the NBA off Portfolio EV and my journey to 100+ betting units is back above 45 on the year. Not bad halfway through November. This was after a massive L for the first few days of the week, but the process never wavered. That’s the biggest takeaway from using these tools and the biggest gap in education for newcomers. If you are reading about +EV market-based tools for the first time, note, this is a long game that requires patience – not overreaction.
We stress the same points because they are easy pathways to profit, just not always easy to maintain. Find the best price. Everything starts with knowing you are getting the best possible price on any ticket. Bet a bunch. Volume is your friend and the easiest way to handle variance or even worse, a tornado. Be ok with betting unders. These are also your friend and you’ll never have to race to twitter to complain about a voided ticket because of an injury. Trust the process. It hasn’t worked well for Joel Embiid, but it will work wonders for Portfolio EV. You will have more up days than down if you maintain the system.
We targeted a bunch of big name players last night in the under market. The idea was so many people were pouring on over plays, from straights to alt parlays, it opened a +EV window for us. We a similar strategy tonight despite there being just five games, four at night.
Our top play of the night is DeMar DeRozan going over 22.5 points. Wait, what? That’s right, we are betting an over and it’s a great bet. The true odds for DeRozan’s points prop sit at -116 yet we only pay a -105 price for the ticket. That’s step one, ? He’s also taking on one of the worst teams across the entire association, so the matchup vs Utah doesn’t hurt.
This just starts our process of finding the best price then beating the rest of the market. No other book is offering this deal on this ticket, which is rather surprising since it’s a popular name going over in a popular market; DeRozan over 22.5 points.
We have two other plays that copy the same process also featuring two stars in the league. Unlike DeRozan, we are targeting smaller, even by a little, markets like rebounds and assists. Look at Jaylen Brown and his prop. His Under 5.5 rebound ticket is best bought at BetRivers for a +116 return. The true odds are +107 and some books are making you pay a fee, i.e. -105, for this play.
Total nonsense. You have to shop the best lines and we do exactly that for you. It’s why we were able to provide edges from 3.5% up to 5% on a smaller slate.
Again, make sure to check out Portfolio EV for more +EV NBA player props. You can sign up for $29.95 per week, $99.95 per month.
