The NBA roars on with another exceptional slate this Tuesday. While we’re waiting on some injury news, we should have plenty of quality games — and quality betting spots — on tap. Let’s dive into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Tuesday, including a Victor Wembanyama prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Tuesday, March 19
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Anthony Edwards Bet
Let’s kick this column off with a pick that I saw popping in the OddsShopper model before locking it in. Anthony Edwards may have just recorded the dunk of the year, but he dislocated his finger in the process. The Timberwolves must now play again tonight.
It’s unclear whether Minnesota will hold Edwards out for this one due to the injury, but it’s worth noting that he did not exit Monday’s contest and kept right on scoring after suffering it. Still, he’ll likely pick up a questionable tag at best.
If Edwards suits up, I’m fading him in this spot versus the Denver Nuggets. Not only is this a great chance for us to take advantage of a public eager to back the emerging star, but it’s also a great one relative to the market. BetMGM lists Edwards at odds of -105 to stay under the 28.5, which is the best deal you’ll find anywhere on the board.
We’re also fading Edwards today because he’s coming off no rest. When Edwards plays without rest this year, he scores only 25.7 points per game, worse than his season average (26.6) and his average with a day off (27). His shooting splits without rest (44/31/88) also mark a meaningful downtick from his average rates (47/37/84).
NBA Expert Pick Today: Anthony Edwards Under 28.5 Points -105 at BetMGM
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Dennis Schröder Bet
OddsShopper’s Caesars is offering a bet for odds of -125 that our model believes has true odds (or breakeven odds) of -139. It gets there because Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the same bet priced for -153.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, are enough to dramatically transform your bankroll. Over the last seven days, we’re cutting up the books 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Expert Pick Today: Bam Adebayo Under 3.5 Assists -130 at FanDuel
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Victor Wembanyama Bet
I love Wemby so, so much, but I love money more. The Spurs draw a Mavericks team that just held Nikola Jokic to a mere 16/11/7 line, and now Jason Kidd will try to scheme up something similar against Wemby here.
The 24-minute split between Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II in the frontcourt should keep them fresh to deal with this monster. P.J. Washington and Maxi Kleber can add extra size to try and keep Wemby off the glass, and defensively, the Mavs have been drastically improved in recent weeks.
Plus, if we don’t ever see Wemby ing 32 minutes in a regulation game, these point, rebound and assists (PRA) totals are much easier to project. And even when boosting his season-long rates to 21/11/4 based on the 32 minutes of court time I project him for tonight, that’s still substantially short of reaching 40.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Victor Wembanyama Under 39.5 PRA -113 at FanDuel
