Let’s all give a shout-out to Anthony Edwards for that incredible poster dunk over John Collins last night. We’re fading him tonight, of course, but let’s give him his flowers before playing his under this evening. Today, I have NBA player prop picks for Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Jalen Green. As always, for real-time access to my picks to ensure you get the best odds, subscribe to NBA player prop betting.
In addition to picks that you can find on my OddsShopper’s model has been killing this season!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Jalen Green & More
Rudy Gobert Player Prop
When I begin putting together my NBA betting cards, I make sure to check out what stands out in the OddsShopper model. We’ve got a small NBA slate today with several teams in tough spots, be it because of injuries or scheduling, so not a ton of markets are open. However, this Rudy Gobert player prop stood out. We’re beating the rest of the market by a sizeable gap by buying him to stay under 13.5 rebounds.
Of all seven sportsbooks taking action on Gobert’s rebounds when I looked, BetMGM was offering the best price on his under by far. Caesars had this bet listed for -117 while Unibet and BetRivers listed it for -129.
The Timberwolves are playing the Denver Nuggets after stomping on the Utah Lazz last night, so we may not have certainty about who is playing until later in the afternoon. Gobert also missed Minnesota’s last game.
Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, are enough to dramatically transform your bankroll. Over the last seven days, we’re cutting up the books 16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Rudy Gobert Under 13.5 Rebounds -110 at BetMGM
Jalen Green Player Prop
The Houston Rockets will visit the Washington Wizards tonight. We cashed a Jalen Green points over when these teams met in Houston last week as he exploded for 37. However, Green is a much less efficient player on the road, and we’re fading him in this spot for that reason.
While Green’s volume has increased since the injury to Alperen Sengün, his road efficiency remains untested. In two road games without the center earlier in the season, Green averaged 21 points per game with shooting splits of 40/27/67 — not exactly what you’d want for a player with a point total trading up at 25.5.
The Wizards don’t do much well, but because they give up so many easy buckets at the rim, I suspect Green’s production from beyond the arc will dip. He shot 5-for-9 (55.6%) at home versus the Wizards last week on his way to 37, so if he regresses to his road shooting percentages and takes fewer 3’s, his scoring output would fall dramatically.
Ultimately, this pick comes down to taking advantage of a split-heavy player. Green averages 1.8 fewer points per game on the road than at home. In 33 road games, he scored 26-plus points just eight times (24.2%). He scored 20-plus points just 12 times (36.3%), too.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Jalen Green Under 25.5 Points -110 at BetMGM
Anthony Edwards Player Prop
Let’s wrap this column up with another pick that I saw popping in the OddsShopper model before locking it in. Anthony Edwards may have just recorded the dunk of the year, but he dislocated his finger in the process. The Timberwolves must now play again tonight.
It’s unclear whether Minnesota will hold Edwards out for this one due to the injury, but it’s worth noting that he did not exit Monday’s contest and kept right on scoring after suffering it. Still, he’ll likely pick up a questionable tag at best.
If Edwards suits up, I’m fading him in this spot versus the Denver Nuggets. Not only is this a great chance for us to take advantage of a public eager to back the emerging star, but it’s also a great one relative to the market. BetMGM lists Edwards at odds of -105 to stay under the 28.5, which is the best deal you’ll find anywhere on the board.
We’re also fading Edwards today because he’s coming off no rest. When Edwards plays without rest this year, he scores only 25.7 points per game, worse than his season average (26.6) and his average with a day off (27). His shooting splits without rest (44/31/88) also mark a meaningful downtick from his average rates (47/37/84).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 28.5 Points -105 at BetMGM
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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