If you told me Tom Thibodeau was going to mess with Jalen Brunson’s minutes and not play him 36 or more minutes against a mostly competitive game against the Denver Nuggets, I’d tell you that you were nuts. But, naturally, that’s what happened last night, and Brunson ended 3 points shy. Now it’s time for our top NBA parlay picks for today, Friday, March 22nd, including an NBA player prop pick for Stephen Curry. Need more action? Check out our NBA betting promos!
NBA Parlay Picks Today: +245 Bet for Friday
Stephen Curry o27.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
I don’t want to lament about how the read was right and we got unlucky last night, but it does feel applicable. With that, we’re going to head back to one of the league’s best scorers in a game with 240-point projected total and only a 5-point spread.
So, give me Stephen Curry over 27.5 points against the Indiana Pacers for Leg 1 of our 2-leg NBA parlay today.
Now, if you’re box score hunting, and you’re looking at only his last five games, you will see that he’s gone over 27.5 points in two of those games.
And, of course, died on the hook in one of the others.
Is that the analysis? No. Of course it isn’t.
We know Steph can be extremely efficient, there’s no doubt about that. He’s a 47% career shooter from the floor and 42% from 3-point range.
But, what you REALLY want out of Steph is volume. And the times we are more likely to see volume from Steph are the games where opposing teams can keep games competitive.
In a game environment which is projecting 240 points, it’s reasonable to think the best scorer on the team favored by 5 points should be in line for a positive night.
If we think Steph gets volume in the range of 20-22 shots tonight, this …
In the 20 games where Steph has shot 22 or more times this season, he has gone UNDER the 27.5 points mark only FOUR times.
And, one of those times he finished directly on the hook with 27.
So, with this matchup against a Pacers team that should feature a TON of pace, we roll with the best 3-point shooter of all time to get us some buckets tonight.
Cade Cunningham o20.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
Since the NBA All-Star break, we’ve seen a drastic shift in how the Pistons have played basketball.
Not in a WINNING fashion, of course, but how they’ve decided to orchestrate their offense. And the biggest beneficiary of this change has been Cade Cunningham.
The usage rate for Cade has skyrocketed since the team returned on Feb. 22. We’re talking age rates consistently in the mid-30s, and soared as high as 40% in his most recent game against the Indiana Pacers.
It’s no coincidence that nine of Cunningham’s 10 highest usage rate games have come since Feb. 22, and he’s cashed the over on this 20.5 points line in eight of those 10 games.
As the usage has increased, so, too, have the shot attempts. Cade’s attempting 19 shots per game in March, which is three more shots per game — and over 1.5 more 3-pointers per game.
Even against as good of a defense like Boston can present, if you’re giving me 18-20 shot attempts, I’m going to ride the volume to the window.
Final NBA Picks & Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Stephen Curry 27.5 Points
Leg 2: Cade Cunningham o20.5 Points
= +245 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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