BANG! Oooohhhh, baby! It’s been a while since we could start this column off that way. Shoutout Lauri Markkanen for the legacy fourth quarter last night to cash out our NBA betting promos — including the new MEGA PROMO from BetMGM!
We need to give Lauri a little more love for just going absolutely bananas in that fourth quarter!
Not only did he cash us out in our 2-leg parlay, but he sent me to a 4-1 night on my Discord NBA betting. And boy did we need it!
We hit Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr AND we cashed in on Isaiah Hartenstein’s rebound (+105) and double-double (+200)!
As always, if you want to get all of my daily NBA betting picks, you can Discord (and get 20% off … check the code below 👇).
Just use code NATHAN, and it’ll get you that 20% off immediately on your first week or month — your choice!
NBA Parlay Picks Today: +464 Bet for Friday
Kevin Durant o25.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
We kick off today’s NBA parlay picks with a guy whose line just seems a bit TOO LOW.
Kevin Durant’s points prop is sitting at 25.5 right now, which is nearly 3 points below his season average (28.4). Not to mention, the Suns are playing the Atlanta Hawks, who allow the second-most points per game in the NBA (123.3). This game has a projected total of 248.5 points, which tells you a ton of points are expected — and the OVER is 4-0 in the last four Hawks games.
With Bradley Beal in the lineup, KD has been playing a lot of minutes at the 4, and if we take a look at how Atlanta has defended opposing power forwards this season … we’re going to like what we see. Let’s dive in.
Defending PFs this season, Atlanta has allowed 26.3 points, over 10 rebounds and nearly 4.5 assists per game. So, as we can see, they’re averaging more points allowed than the line we need Durant to hit.
However, with how good the overall matchup is, I think you could go to KD’s PRAs if you don’t like the points prop.
Kyle Kuzma u25.5 Points (NBA Player Prop)
Man, the entire betting world and much of #GamblingTwitter has been burned time and time again by this guy. That includes us on a game where he got ejected in the fourth quarter and just put us in shambles.
So, tonight, we ride with an under on Kyle Kuzma.
We are betting on under 25.5 Kyle Kuzma points as our second leg of this parlay today.
I believe there’s a chance we moved the line this morning, my friends, because as I look now it seems it might be at 24.5 most places.
And, the OddsShopper Prop Tool actually has the under on 24.5 points as one of the best +EV bets on the board today.
It’s sitting with an OS Rating of 16, which is popping off the page, and a 58% expected win percentage.
Now, that’s what it has on the 24.5 numbers … imagine what it looked like at 25.5. It damn near broke the model this morning, so we had to jam it in!
Devin Vassell u22.5 Points (NBA Betting Pick)
Speaking of INSANE +EV bets … this is another one: Devin Vassell UNDER 22.5 points.
I see we, once again, moved the lines this morning. It’s actually dropped to 20.5 at some places, but you can still get it at 21.5 over at DraftKings if you hurry!
Vassell has been shooting the lights out the last few games, which will make a lot of you hesitant to go for an under. He’s scored 25, 24 and 26 points in each of his last three games.
However, there are a few factors that could really play in our favor tonight, and we’re going to break them down.
First and foremost, the Spurs are facing the Pelicans tonight, who have a Top 10 defense this year, according to NBA Defensive Rating metrics on NBA.com. And, in of matchup here, the Spurs have the 28th-ranked offense. So, we’re getting a Top 10 defense against a bottom 3 offense. I’m liking how that lines up.
Let’s take a look at how New Orleans defends opposing shooting guards. This season, the Pels have been a Top 12 team at defending SGs in of points per game (21.97). And if we zoom in on just the last 30 games, they have been a Top 6 team.
The Pelicans refuse to play any kind of close games of late, so, there should be a pretty good potential of blowout. And, if we do see the Spurs get dog-walked, that would likely lead to diminished minutes for Vassell.
Eat your vegetables, friends. Bet the under.
Final NBA Picks & Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Kevin Durant o25.5 Points
Leg 2: Kyle Kuzma u25.5 Points
Leg 3: Devin Vassell u22.5 Points
= +464 odds at ESPN Bet
OddsShopper’s NBA Tools & Tips
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