With 2022 in the books, the race for this year’s NBA Most Valuable Player Award is well underway. Although no individual player currently owns betting odds better than 33.3%, a few clear contenders have emerged. Because the NBA MVP usually stuffs the box scores with counting stats, especially points, identifying the league’s top performers in standard metrics can be a great way to find value relative to the NBA MVP betting odds. Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic stand out as value bets at this point in the season.
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2022-23 NBA Most Valuable Player Odds
NBA MVP Odds: Players to Buy
Luka Doncic (+280) at FanDuel
Luka Doncic rightfully remains the MVP frontrunner. He was trading between +275 and +300 just a month ago, so the odds have moved in his favor ever so slightly. The Mavericks have leaned heavily on Doncic to carry them this year, and the 23-year-old superstar ranks first in points per game (34.3), fourth in assists (8.9) and 22nd in rebounds (8.8). Doncic's MVP odds are inherently linked to Dallas' record, and the team's recent seven-game winning streak has shot them up to fourth in the Western Conference.
The NBA MVP Award model at Basketball-Reference, which correctly favored Nikola Jokic the last two seasons, gives Doncic the second-best odds of winning at 32.3%. The model uses previous voting results and player stats to reach its conclusions. That's better than the currently available implied odds at most major sportsbooks, which are giving Doncic a 26.3% chance to win the award.
Nikola Jokic (+450) at Caesars
At the start of December, Jokic was was a buy then, and he remains a buy at 9-2. While NBA award voters may not want to give him the award for a third straight season, that doesn't make Jokic any less of a target. Jokic ranks 17th in points per game (25.6) but sixth in rebounds (10.8) and third in assists (9.5). His Nuggets even lead the Western Conference.
Basketball-Reference's NBA MVP Award model points to considerable value on Jokic. His 40.5% chance of winning is up considerably from 23.9% back in early December. Furthermore, the sportsbooks are still listing him with implied odds of 18.2%. The Nuggets may cool down, but Jokic's MVP odds should be no shorter than 3-1 -- this line is a steal at 9-2.
Domantas Sabonis (+50000) at FanDuel
Bettors shouldn't wager more than a 10th of a unit on Domantas Sabonis to win the NBA MVP Award this year. His odds of hoisting the Michael Jordan Trophy are higher than the 0.2% chance implied by FanDuel's odds, but they aren't great. Sabonis ranks 50th in points per game (18.6) but first in rebounds (12.4) and 13th in assists (6.6). He'd need to lead the Sacramento Kings on a long winning streak by scoring a boatload of points to become a viable contender.
NBA MVP Odds: Players to Sell
Jayson Tatum (+350) at DraftKings
Jayson Tatum remains a player to sell. His odds have fallen from an NBA-best 5-2 to only 7-2 over the last month, and they could get even lower if the Boston Celtics can't turn their recent slump around quickly. Further, Tatum lacks the well-rounded statistical production of his competition. He ranks an impressive fourth in points per game (30.9) but only 32nd in rebounds (8.1) and 53rd in assists (4.1).
As a result, Basketball-Reference's model isn't especially high on Tatum. His odds of 3.8% per their model convert to a betting line of +2532 -- far longer than his odds in the NBA betting markets. Tatum will have to start contributing as a er if he wants to win the MVP Award, but he is yet to average more than 4.4 assists per game in his career.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+450) at DraftKings
It's always difficult to count out Giannis Antetokounmpo, but his current betting odds won't yield a positive return on investment. The two-time MVP owns only a 4.5% chance of winning the award, per Basketball-Reference's model, which is far longer than the 18.2% chance implied by the major sportsbooks. Jokic is a much better investment at the same price.
Although Antetokounmpo has continued to stuff the stat sheet -- he ranks third in points per game (32.1), third in rebounds (11.8) and 35th in assists (5.2) -- the Milwaukee Bucks will get Khris Middleton back at some point, and he should cut into his teammate's production. Some may think that Milwaukee's recent cold spell makes for a decent buy-low spot for Giannis, but even a bounce-back for the Bucks won't correct for how much the market is overrating him.
